Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $42,662 Super High 5 tickets

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, March 22 at Oaklawn Park and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $42,662 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Power Hour 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers in all eligible races at all tracks between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. ET on Friday.
• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Turfway Park 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Turfway Park every Friday in March.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk during the month of March.
• 10x Points at Fraser Downs: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fraser Downs on Thursdays and Fridays in March.
• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill Gardens or Royal Randwick in Australia. Today’s track is Rosehill Gardens
• Hoosier Park 25% Profit Boost: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on all winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers on Friday and Saturday at Hoosier Park.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Oaklawn Park: Race 7: $75,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 4:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Hush It Honey (2-1) didn’t have a fair chance to win the one-mile Martha Washington S. on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks at Oaklawn last month. She raced wide over a sloppy track that favored horses racing inside and ultimately faded to finish last of nine.

Hush It Honey had previously won a $62,500 starter optional claimer sprinting six furlongs over a fast track at Oaklawn by two lengths, earning an 89 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Friday’s field. Dropping back down in class and distance over a (presumably) fair track should allow Hush It Honey to rebound.

A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #7 Hittin My Stride (5-2) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Hush It Honey (2-1)
• #7 Hittin My Stride (5-2)
• #1 Spin the Breeze (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Hush It Honey
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 7
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Girl Goodbye (2-1) showed speed when finishing second and sixth in her last two starts against $15,000 maiden claiming competition. Her runner-up finish came by only three-quarters of a length after leading by 1 1/2 lengths for much of the journey.

There isn’t much pace in Friday’s field, so Girl Goodbye should be tough to catch if she shakes loose on an uncontested lead while dropping down to the $5,000 maiden claiming level. We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Girl Goodbye.

Selections

• #1 Girl Goodbye (2-1)
• #6 Bella Morning (8-1)
• #2 Beautiful Mandate (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Girl Goodbye

Turfway Park: Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Outadore (2-1) boasts three wins and a second from four starts at Turfway Park. Last time out, he led all the way to win a $50,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Turfway over subsequent Turfway stakes winners Night Time and Surly Furious.

Outadore should be formidable while sticking to the same track, distance, and class level, so let’s bet him to win and key him over his accomplished stablemate #9 Arrest Me Red (3-1) in a cold exacta:

Selections

• #5 Outadore (2-1)
• #9 Arrest Me Red (3-1)
• #4 Bourbon Heist (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Outadore
• $15 Exacta: 5 with 9
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 10: $42,662 Super High 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

Whether you play the Super High 5 at Turfway Park every racing day or only occasionally, you’ll want to be in on the action this Friday. The $1 wager has gone unsolved for days, leading to a massive non-jackpot carryover worth $42,662.

Hitting a Turfway Park Super High 5 isn’t easy. The wager is offered on the final race of each card, which usually features a full field. But Friday’s finale is an exception. The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 8, a $15,000 maiden claimer that drew only 10 three-year-olds and older horses to sprint six furlongs on Tapeta. That means there are only 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze, down substantially from the 95,040 possibilities found in a typical 12-horse field.

The horse to beat is #2 Centauro (5-2), a trifecta finisher in three straight starts over this track, distance, and class level. Those efforts yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 76, 80, and 74, hovering right around the par winning number (78) for Friday’s conditions. But Centauro is 0-for-13 lifetime, and his tendency to settle for minor awards means we can’t key Centauro on top. We’ll use him on top, certainly, but also in second place.

Who are the other win candidates? #10 Channel Z (7-2) is intriguing after dropping in class to finish third in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway on March 13, but he’s been running long as of late and finished out of the top three when opening his career in a couple of sprints, so cutting back in distance is a question mark for this stoutly bred son of English Channel.

That’s why we’ll throw #1 My Man Freddy (12-1) into the mix as a wildcard. The three-year-old son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist is facing older rivals for the first time, but he’s also dropping in class out of two maiden special weights sprinting at Turfway. He showed speed in a Feb. 17 contest before fading to finish sixth by 9 1/2 lengths. Facing easier competition may help My Man Freddy stretch his speed for trainer Steve Armstrong, who has gone 2-for-7 (29%) at Turfway since November.

We won’t use My Man Freddy in every slot of our tickets. Since we’re banking on improvement with the class drop, we’ll play him on top, but otherwise relegate him to fifth position (in case he doesn’t improve much or at all). This strategy best supports our opinions while keeping ticket costs reasonable: 

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 5,10 with 5,7,10 with 3,4,5,7,10 with 1,3,4,5,7,10 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,10 with 2 with 5,7,10 with 3,4,5,7,10 with 1,3,4,5,7,10 ($54)
  Total: $90

Good luck!