Friday's Best Bets and Quick Picks: 43% winning angle at Colonial

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 19 at Saratoga and Colonial Downs, including horses to single in Colonial’s $1,139 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Fridays at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:10 p.m. ET)

Trainer Christophe Clement does well debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga, compiling a 12-3-2-2 (25%) record with such runners since 2020. So let’s back Clement’s unraced two-year-old #8 No Evidence (5-2) in the Friday opener at Saratoga.

A son of multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler Vekoma, who won the Nashua (G3) at age two, No Evidence sold for $325,000 earlier this year and recently breezed half a mile over the Saratoga training track turf course. There’s a lot to like about this bay colt, so a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 No Evidence (5-2)
• #1 Governor Sam (8-5)
• #4 After Taxes (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 No Evidence

Saratoga: Race 3: Curlin S. (1 1/8 miles on dirt, 2:18 p.m. ET)

#1 Unmatched Wisdom (4-5) is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts for trainer Chad Brown, employing pace-tracking tactics to take a maiden special weight by 6 1/4 lengths and an allowance by 5 3/4 lengths. The latter victory came racing 1 1/8 miles, and Unmatched Wisdom finished strongly to earn a promising 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

There isn’t much pace in the Curlin field, so Unmatched Wisdom’s early speed should allow him to work out a favorable forwardly placed trip and keep his perfect record intact. #5 Elephants Ear (12-1), fresh off a fast $100,000 allowance optional claiming win racing 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, can complete the exacta at a price.

Selections

• #1 Unmatched Wisdom (4-5)
• #5 Elephants Ear (12-1)
• #4 Timeout (2-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 5

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 6:28 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Mary Lightner has gone 3-for-7 (43%) saddling juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs. This stat bodes well for Lightner’s two-year-old filly #4 Glamourcents (5-2).

A daughter of Goldencents, Glamourcents has finished third and fourth in her first two starts against $40,000 maiden claiming competition on dirt at Churchill Downs. Dropping in class and switching to turf can trigger a winning run; Lightner wins at a 50% rate with first-time grass starters, and Goldencents is the sire of the graded stakes-winning grass runners Going to Vegas, Phantom Currency, Wildman Jack, and That’s Right.

Let’s bet Glamourcents to win and hope her 5-2 morning line odds hold up.

Selections

• #4 Glamourcents (5-2)
• #9 Rocio (8-1)
• #2 Lil Sweezey (9-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Glamourcents

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $1,139 Pick 6 carryover (5:59 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on Thursday, the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs features a non-jackpot $1,139 carryover for Friday’s card.

All six races in the Pick 6 are grass events with large fields. It looks like a tricky sequence to decipher, with 940,896 possible outcomes before scratches.

Fortunately, we can simplify the ticket construction process by singling #6 Paper Mansion (9-5) in Race 4, a $16,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile over the outer turf course. A nine-horse field has turned out, but none can boast recent form as sharp as Paper Mansion.

Paper Mansion is a decent dirt campaigner, but she’s almost unstoppable on grass, compiling a 9-8-1-0 tally on turf. That includes seven straight wins coming into Friday’s contest at Colonial Downs.

Those seven wins have come at three different tracks (Laurel Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Delaware Park) and over a variety of class levels. She’s won four $16,000 starter handicaps, a couple of $20,000 starter optional claimers, and a $32,000 allowance optional claimer. On six occasions, she led from start to finish.

How can we oppose a mare with a record like this? Chances are Paper Mansion will win right back for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Mychel Sanchez and high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness, who have won at a 21% rate teaming up together over the last two months. Hence, Paper Mansion’s ranking as a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

We should add, we’re quite confident the above-mentioned #4 Glamourcents (5-2) will win Race 5, the second leg of the Pick 6. Even though the field for that five-furlong $30,000 maiden claiming turf sprint is large (with 10 horses in the main body of the field and two on the also-eligible list), Glamourcents appears to have the group measured. She owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in the field and has already defeated the horse with the second-highest number.

There’s always a chance one of the first-time starters could step up and surprise with a giant debut, but none of them appear especially likely to do so. Thus, Pick 6 bettors playing on  a budget can consider making Glamourcents a second single.

Good luck!