Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 5-1 shot at Saratoga

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 26 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Del Mar, including horses to play in Colonial’s $4,419 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Fridays at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Hastings $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hastings Racecourse.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 4: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 2:52 p.m. ET)

In a race that doesn’t figure to unfold at a blazing tempo, #5 Stonewall Star (5-1) figures to work out a favorable trip. The four-time stakes winner routinely races on or near the lead, as she did when taking the one-mile Biogio’s Rose  S. at Aqueduct two starts back with a 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stonewall Star matched that number when returning from a brief layoff to finish second in the one-mile Mount Vernon S. at Saratoga last month. Those back-to-back 91s stack up reasonably well against Friday’s field, so let’s count on Stonewall Star to steal this race on the front end.

Selections

• #5 Stonewall Star (5-1)
• #1 Occult (8-5)
• #7 Chi Town Lady (9-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Stonewall Star

Colonial Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 6:38 p.m. ET)

#6 Smartest (3-1) sold for $525,000 as a yearling and has posted a bevy of bullet workouts at Fair Hill, suggesting this Graham Motion trainee is a promising prospect. It’s nice to see Smartest debuting over one mile on grass because she’s bred to relish these conditions; she’s a daughter of Breeder’s Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie (who sires a lofty 19% winners from first-time turf starters) out of Smart Emma, a mating that previously produced Memorialize, winner of the Tepin S. racing one mile on turf.

Throw in the fact Motion has compiled a solid 6-1-2-1 record debuting juveniles in grass routes at Colonial Downs since 2022, and Smartest is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #6 Smartest (3-1)
• #8 Taco Cat Backwards (5-1)
• #10 Queen in the Deck (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Smartest (3-1)

Del Mar: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 8:04 p.m. ET)

#8 Sir Tom (5-2) is an unraced two-year-old son of Bodexpress, a first-crop stallion who is siring 22% winners from first-time starters. Sir Tom has shown speed in the mornings for hot trainer Doug O’Neill, most notably clocking half a mile in :47 1/5 at Santa Anita, so a debut victory may be in the offing.

We’ll keep things simple with a win bet on Sir Tom.

Selections

• #8 Sir Tom (5-2)
• #4 Whiskyginandbrandy (15-1)
• #7 Whiskeyinateacup (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Sir Tom

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $4,419 Pick 6 carryover (6:05 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Colonial Downs is highlighted by a $4,419 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

On Thursday, racing took placed over rain-soaked yielding inner and outer turf courses at Colonial Downs. The Friday forecast is clear of rain, so hopefully the races will remain on turf. The nine-race card is comprised exclusively of grass races, so suffice to say the Pick 6 sequence would be decimated by scratches if the races were transferred to dirt.

Assuming the races stay on turf, here are two prices horses to include on your Pick 6 tickets:

Race 4: #7 Cobblestone Bridge (9-2)

Morning line favorites #1 Blame the Clouds (5-2) and #2 Mortal Sin (3-1) were separated by a neck when finishing second and third in a $16,000 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs, so they’re tough to split while meeting again in Race 4, a 1 1/16-mile $12,500 claimer.

But perhaps splitting them is unnecessary. Cobblestone Bridge might be better than both of them. He’s plunging in class out of a $75,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct and had previously recorded top-five finishes in a trio of maiden special weights, including one at Colonial Downs last summer. Cobblestone Bridge looms as a logical win threat while making his first start for trainer Michael Stidham, who has gone 3-for-10 (30%) at Colonial Downs this meet.

Race 7: #9 Carolina Hideaway (6-1)

Carolina Hideaway debuted in May 2023 with a fine try in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Pimlico turf course. After dropping more than a dozen lengths off the pace, she gobbled up ground and gained seven lengths through the final furlong alone to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Carolina Hideaway has only run once since then, finishing fifth after a troubled start in a one-mile maiden special weight at Pimlico in June 2023. But she’s trained nicely for her return (even posting a trio of bullet workouts) and shouldn’t be underestimated while tackling Race 7, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Virginia-restricted fillies and mares.

The competition in a restricted race should be a little easier than Carolina Hideaway faced at Pimlico last year, and her 78 Brisnet Speed rating ranks as the highest turf number belonging to any horse entered in Race 7. For all these reasons, Carolina Hideaway is worth including in the Pick 6.

Good luck!