Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $54,675 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Dec. 29 at Turfway Park and Delta Downs, along with analysis of the $54,675 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any Friday from Dec. 1 through Dec. 29 to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 1: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#1 Give Him Time (12-1) got off to a slow start when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland and never challenged thereafter, finishing last out of 10. But he’s been gelded since then and is plunging in class for trainer Dale Romans, who has gone 4-for-12 (33%) at Turfway this meet, so there are reasons to believe Give Him Time can improve in his second start.

We’ll take a chance with a win bet on Give Him Time.

Selections

• #1 Give Him Time (12-1)
• #10 Coal Boss (3-1)
• #3 Cote d’Ivoire (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Give Him Time

Turfway Park: Race 4: $30,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#8 Last Cookie (10-1) has finished second and third in his last two starts against allowance competition at Mahoning Valley, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and 80. Those numbers fit well against Friday’s field at Turfway.

Last Cookie dominated his lone previous start at Turfway Park, rallying to win a $15,000 maiden claimer by 5 1/4 lengths. Returning to Turfway while dropping in class can help Last Cookie vie for victory at double-digit odds.

Selections

• #8 Last Cookie (10-1)
• #9 Looking Good Lewis (8-1)
• #11 Meadow Value (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Last Cookie

Delta Downs: Race 8: Rosewater S. (7 1/2 furlongs, 9:24 p.m. ET)

#4 Basalt Street (2-1) ran reasonably well in two starts at Delta Downs early in her career, and she’s improved since then. She enters off a nose defeat in the Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint S. at Fair Grounds, for which she earned a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Gary Scherer has gone 2-for-7 (29%) at Delta Downs this meet, and jockey Timothy Thornton has gone 55-for-210 (26%), so Basalt Street has hot connections in her corner. We’ll bet her over #2 Muchmorethanready (9-2) and #5 World War (7-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #4 Basalt Street (2-1)
• #2 Muchmorethanready (9-2)
• #5 World War (7-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2,5 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $54,675 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Pick 6 during the stakes-packed card at Fair Grounds last Saturday. The sequence went unsolved the previous day as well. And also the day before that. As a result, there’s a triple Pick 6 carryover worth $54,675 up for grabs during Friday’s card. The fact it’s a non-jackpot carryover adds to the appeal.

A challenging sequence awaits Pick 6 bettors. The six races drew a combined 71 horses (averaging nearly 12 per race), which works out to a staggering 2,534,400 possible outcomes. Even if you withdraw the six also-eligible entrants from consideration, there are still 65 horses and 1,584,000 possible outcomes to analyze.

In a sequence this competitive, finding at least one single to build tickets around is important for bettors hoping to play on a budget. Fortunately, a viable single candidate can be found toward the end of the sequence in Race 7, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. Even though the race drew an overflow field of 16 (including four also-eligible entrants), #7 Lightning Myqueen (6-1) looks like a standout among the experienced runners.

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Lightning Myqueen debuted against males in a five-furlong turf sprint at Churchill Downs and finished second, beaten one length while pulling 3 3/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher Spirit’s Mischief.

That effort yielded an 88 Brisnet Speed rating, 11 points higher than the par winning number for Friday’s conditions for Fair Grounds. And the form was flattered when Spirit’s Mischief returned to win his next start.

Lightning Myqueen is adding Lasix and squaring off against fellow fillies for her second start, so the stage is set for another strong performance. None of her experienced rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80, so unless one of the first-time starters fires a giant shot on debut (which doesn’t seem especially probable based on trainer stats), Lightning Myqueen shouldn’t have much trouble reaching the winner’s circle as a nice-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!