Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 shot on Fair Grounds opening day

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 22 at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds, along with analysis of Gulfstream Park’s $64,848 Pick 5 carryover.

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• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 4: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

After finishing fifth, second, second, and fourth in a quartet of maiden special weights at Colonial Downs, #3 All the Luck (7-2) ran well in a $50,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs over the Churchill Downs dirt. After tracking a strong pace in third place, All the Luck stayed on nicely to finish in a dead-heat for second.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. wins at a 31% rate in maiden claiming races and hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 23% winner at Churchill this meet) is picking up the mount, so we’ll count on All the Luck to deliver victory while sticking to the $50,000 level.

Selections

• #3 All the Luck (7-2)
• #2 J David (3-1)
• #9 Canisius (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 All the Luck

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 3:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Scorpius (3-1) ran okay when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Keeneland turf course, leading for six furlongs before fading in the final eighth of a mile to finish fifth by 4 3/4 lengths.

As a son of Into Mischief out of the Empire Maker mare Brooch, Scorpius is a full-brother to 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mandaloun. Scorpius is bred to shine while switching from turf to dirt (a 33% winning move for trainer Brad Cox), so let’s bet Scorpius to win.

Selections

• #2 Scorpius (3-1)
• #4 Executive (5-1)
• #1 Spurgeon (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Scorpius

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#9 Liam’s Mist (8-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of Keith Bourgeois, a 20% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. During the first two weeks of the 2023-24 meet at Fair Grounds, Bourgeois compiled an excellent 4-for-7 (57%) record.

As a half-sister to Dunkin Bend, who won the Sapling (G3) as a juvenile, Liam’s Mist has the potential to shine from an early age. At 8-1, she’s worth betting to win.

Selections

• #9 Liam’s Mist (8-1)
• #6 Call Me Susan (7-2)
• #5 Powdered Sugar (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Liam’s Mist

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: $64,848 Pick 5 carryover (2:31 p.m. ET)

One of the most enticing carryovers up for grabs on Friday can be found at Gulfstream Park, where the 50-cent Late Pick 5 has tossed up a lucrative $64,848 prize pool.

The highlight of the sequence is race 7, a $62,500 allowance optional claimer taking place over seven furlongs on dirt. The overwhelming favorite in a five-horse field is #2 White Abarrio (1-5), the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Whitney (G1) winner whose near-perfect 5-for-6 record at Gulfstream Park includes a triumph in the 2022 Florida Derby (G1). He figures to be a single for many Pick 5 bettors.

But White Abarrio has struggled in both of his 2024 starts, finishing 10th in the Saudi Cup (G1) and fifth in the Metropolitan H. (G1). Returning to Gulfstream and dropping sharply in class off a 5 1/2-month layoff may allow White Abarrio to rebound, but it’s hard to trust him fully as a single. #4 Mish (5-2), a stakes-winning sprinter with a 7-for-16 record at Gulfstream Park, is worth including as backup in case White Abarrio misfires again.

Pick 5 bettors in search of a single can instead consider #5 Rachels Song (6-5) in race 5, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for Florida-bred fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta.

Rachels Song has thrived running long over Gulfstream’s Tapeta track. She finished a close third in her debut over this surface and hasn’t tasted defeat in three subsequent Tapeta starts. She crushed a $35,000 maiden claimer, took a $35,000 claimer by two lengths, and most recently prevailed in a $35,000 starter allowance.

With five straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 80-91 range under her belt, Rachels Song is the fastest race 5 entrant on paper. Dropping into the Florida-bred ranks for the first time should make the four-year-old filly tough to beat for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Joe Bravo and Jose D’Angelo, who have gone 6-for-18 (33%) teaming up together over the last two months. Hence, our designation of Rachels Song as a trustworthy single.

Good luck!