Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $23,062 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 12 at Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct, including horses to play in Aqueduct’s $23,062 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Double Down: Hit two double wagers in a single day at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (up to 50% per day) on all winning double wagers for the day, every Wednesday through Friday in April.
• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill Gardens or Royal Randwick in Australia. Today’s track is Royal Randwick.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $16,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Charlicito (6-1) finished second when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong $16,000 maiden claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. The winner, Ejtimaa, returned to dominate a $25,000 starter optional claimer at Tampa by four lengths.

Charlicito didn’t fare as well in his second start, finishing eighth in a $25,000 maiden claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Tampa, but he made a decent early rally to gain second place with a furlong remaining and should appreciate returning to $16,000 level on Friday. Let’s bet Charlicito to win and key him over second-time starter #2 Scallywag (9-5) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #5 Charlicito (6-1)
• #2 Scallywag (9-5)
• #1 Mr Lefty (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Charlicito
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $25

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:42 p.m. ET)

Trainer Juan Alvarado does well debuting two-year-olds in early-season sprints at Gulfstream Park, so we’ll take a shot supporting Alvarado’s unraced juvenile #4 Tank (9-2). The bay colt is a son of Adios Charlie (who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters), and a half-mile workout from the starting gate in :49 4/5 should have him fit for a competitive debut.

Tank should offer a nice price in the wagering, so we’ll keep things simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #4 Tank (9-2)
• #9 Delightful Flame (8-5)
• #7 Rose Rita (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Tank

Aqueduct: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has compiled an excellent 6-for-21 (29%) record saddling first-time starters on dirt at Aqueduct since 2021. This bodes well for Mott’s unraced #6 Wo Hop (7-2), who breezed a bullet five furlongs over the Belmont Park training track in 1:01 last month.

This field of New York-bred maidens hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so we’ll bet Wo Hop to win and key him over #3 Sandy Sweet Tooth (4-5) in the exacta. The latter finished third in his debut over this track, distance, and class level on March 10.

Selections

• #6 Wo Hop (7-2)
• #3 Sandy Sweet Tooth (4-5)
• #4 Z Dancer (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Wo Hop
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $23,062 Pick 6 carryover (2:23 p.m. ET)

A $23,062 non-jackpot Pick 6 carryover awaits bettors playing the Friday card at Aqueduct.

The sequence for the $1 wager doesn’t appear unsolvable. The six races drew only 44 horses (averaging about 7.3 per race), and two of those horses are coupled in the betting. That means there are only 43 betting interests and 127,008 possible outcomes to analyze, very manageable numbers by Pick 6 standards.

The second leg of the Pick 6 is the above-mentioned Race 4, in which #6 Wo Hop (7-2) and #3 Sandy Sweet Tooth (4-5) rank as the runners to beat. If we use both and none of the other four entrants, we can slice the number of Pick 6 combinations to consider down to 42,336.

The largest field can be found in Race 7, a six-furlong allowance which features 10 horses, including coupled entrymates #1 Got Thunder (10-1) and #1A Kingdom (10-1). The morning line favorite is #2 Radio Red (5-2), a rock-solid four-year-old who has rarely missed the trifecta since breaking his maiden in February 2023. He routinely throws down Brisnet Speed ratings in the 91+ range, including a career-best 105 when beating New York-bred rivals in a seven-furlong $45,000 allowance optional claimer earlier this year.

Radio Red exits a runner-up finish in a non-state-restricted seven-furlong allowance at Aqueduct, an effort that produced a 93 Brisnet Speed rating. That respectable number is all the more impressive when you consider how it was earned over a sloppy track. Radio Red had run four times previously over wet tracks, and they corresponded with his only four out-of-the-money finishes. The fact Radio Red managed an exacta finish over a sloppy track can be seen as a testament to the great form he’s in right now.

There’s a chance Radio Red will encounter a wet track on Friday, which would dampen our enthusiasm for his chances a little bit. But if the track comes up fast, we would be willing to single Radio Red in the Pick 6, which—when coupled with our two-horse strategy in Race 4—would leave us with only 4,704 Pick 6 combinations to decipher across the remaining four races. Not bad at all.

Good luck!