Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bentornato can win Robert Hilton

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 23, at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Charles Town, including a single for Colonial’s $680 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Friday at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Woodbine 15% Profit Boost: King’s Plate Day: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers in any eligible race at Woodbine (Thoroughbred) on Friday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 1: maiden special weight (six furlongs on dirt, 12:35 p.m. ET)

The Belmont Park training track doesn’t typically yield blazing workout times, so it’s been noteworthy to see the unraced two-year-old filly #5 Hay Evabody (6-1) post a pair of bullet half-mile workouts from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in :47 and :47 3/5.

Those are seriously fast times that suggest this daughter of champion sprinter Mitole has talent. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has sent out more two-year-old debut winners at Saratoga than any other trainer since 2021, and jockey Dylan Davis has gone 2-for-3 (67%) teaming up with Pletcher over the last two months, so Hay Evabody’s 6-1 morning-line odds are enticing.

Let’s bet Hay Evabody to win and play her over #8 Stunner (5-2), another fast-working first-time starter, in the exacta:

Selections

• #5 Hay Evabody (6-1)
• #8 Stunner (5-2)
• #3 Senza Parole (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Hay Evabody
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 8
  Total: $25

Colonial Downs: Race 1: $40,000 maiden claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:40 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field don’t appear especially tough on paper, so we’ll back the first-time starter #2 Oliviera (3-1). She’s a daughter of juvenile graded stakes winner Mo Town, who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters.

Oliviera is conditioned by hot trainer Phil Schoenthal, a 21% winner at Colonial Downs this meet who wins at a 14% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Jockey Victor Carrasco is named to ride, a positive since Carrasco and Schoenthal have won at a 36% rate teaming up together over the last two months.

A win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #2 Oliviera (3-1)
• #3 Chickin Lickin (8-5)
• #4 Tierra Santa (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Oliviera

Charles Town: Race 9: Robert Hilton Memorial S. (seven furlongs on dirt, 9 p.m. ET)

#4 Bentornato (9-2) is undefeated in four starts sprinting, which includes three blowout stakes wins at Gulfstream Park. He’s also run well in a couple of starts over longer distances. In the Saudi Derby (G3) racing 1,600 meters (about one mile), he finished third behind Forever Young and Book’em Danno, who respectively returned to win the UAE Derby (G2) and Woody Stephens (G1).

Cutting back to seven furlongs for the Robert Hilton Memorial should make Bentornato tough to beat under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. A win bet is warranted.

Selections

• #4 Bentornato (9-2)
• #5 Tapalo (4-1)
• #1 Valentine Candy (12-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Bentornato

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $680 Pick 6 carryover (6:13 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s $680 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs, you’ll have to decipher a challenging but not inscrutable sequence.

The six races that comprise the $1 “Old Dominion 6” contain 50 horses in total (averaging about 8.3 per race) and 317,520 possible outcomes before scratches. But as far as Pick 6s go, that’s not unmanageable. The first two legs of the sequence drew only seven horses, so it should be possible to assemble a competitive ticket on a reasonable budget.

That should certainly be the case if we single #3 Union Bulldog (6-5) in race 7, a $40,000 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course. That has drawn eight horses, and just by singling Union Bulldog we can slice the number of Pick 6 possibilities to consider to 39,690.

Union Bulldog didn’t show a lot in his first five starts on dirt, aside from finishing second in a $75,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct. But he’s improved his Brisnet Speed ratings meaningfully since switching to turf. On June 14, he finished second in a $45,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/8 miles at Laurel Park, earning an 87 Brisnet Speed rating. Then on July 20, he finished third in a $40,000 maiden claimer over 1 1/16 miles at Colonial Downs, beaten only one length by next-out winner Border War despite running into some traffic.

None of Union Bulldog’s Friday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 78. On turf, none have earned a number higher than 74. If Union Bulldog runs his typical race, he’ll be mighty tough to beat.

Sealing the deal are positive jockey and trainer stats. Union Bulldog was claimed out of his last race by hot trainer Michael Stidham, a 30% winner at Colonial Downs this meet. Stidham wins at a 27% rate with horses running back for the first time following a claim, and over the last two months he’s won at a 32% rate teaming up with hot jockey Ben Curtis, a 21% winner at Colonial Downs this meet.

In short, Union Bulldog’s credentials are rock-solid. He looks like a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

Good luck!