Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bet this 30-1 longshot

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Jan. 5 at Gulfstream Park, Turfway Park, and Delta Downs, along with horses to play in the $23,531 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway and the $3,276 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Feb. 4.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:37 p.m. ET)

#9 Macanga (3-1) impressed in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Gulfstream Park turf course last month. Despite carving out honest fractions of :23.92, :47.79, and 1:10.95 on the front end, Macanga managed to sprint her final quarter-mile in a quick :23.40 to kick clear and score by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:34.35.

There isn’t a crazy amount of speed entered in Friday’s field, so Macanga has every chance to repeat her debut performance while stepping up in class. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #11 Dynamic Pricing (5-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #9 Macanga (3-1)
• #11 Dynamic Pricing (5-2)
• #5 Parish Lane (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Macanga
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 11
  Total: $30

Delta Downs: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (five furlongs, 6:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Magnolia Ridge (20-1) hasn’t shown much in recent starts against $5,000 claiming company at Louisiana Downs, but he’s been freshened since March and may improve in his first start for trainer Samuel Breaux, a respectable 16% winner at Fair Grounds this meet.

It’s worth noting Magnolia Ridge ran one of his better races in his lone start at Delta Downs, gaining a lot of ground late to finish fourth by 2 1/2 lengths in an October 2022 $5,000 claimer. Returning to this bullring oval might be the ticket to success for this 20-1 longshot.

Let’s bet Magnolia Ridge to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #1 Magnolia Ridge (20-1)
• #3 All of Us (5-2)
• #6 Dial Uncle Joey (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Magnolia Ridge

Turfway Park: Race 4: $8,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Jingle (30-1) has run well in recent starts against $5,000 claiming competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He was particularly sharp in his most recent dirt race, tracking the pace before taking over to beat a next-out winner by four lengths.

That decisive victory yielded an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, which stacks up well against Friday’s field. He’s stepping up in class, but his form lines suggest 30-1 is too high a price on this capable and versatile gelding. Throw in hot jockey Alberto Burgos (a 20% winner at Turfway since November), and Jingle is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #6 Jingle (30-1)
• #9 Job Security (4-1)
• #7 Supreme Song (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Jingle (30-1)

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $23,531 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

On Thursday, the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park went unsolved for a fifth consecutive racing day, allowing the non-jackpot carryover to climb to an enticing $23,531 for Friday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, a $15,000 maiden claimer for older horses racing one mile on Tapeta. Live longshots abound in this full field, and #11 Lyte Crude (8-1) is among the most appealing. The four-year-old gelding exits a respectable fifth-place finish in a six-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer at Turfway, in which he tracked the early pace before weakening in the homestretch to finish six lengths behind the winner.

That was a fine try considering Lyte Crude has done his best work racing one mile or farther. Two starts back, he was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths when sixth in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course. And during the summer, he ran second twice in one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta contests at Gulfstream Park, including a $25,000 maiden claimer.

Stretching back out in distance while dropping down in class can place Lyte Crude in win contention under hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. Don’t leave Lyte Crude off the top of your Super High 5 tickets.

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $3,276 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Pick 6 on Thursday at Fair Grounds, triggering a non-jackpot carryover worth $3,276 for Friday’s card.

The final leg of the six-race sequence is Race 8, a $10,000 maiden claimer for Louisiana-bred three-year-old fillies. The six-furlong dirt sprint has drawn a dozen entries, but most of the experienced runners have shown uninspiring form thus far. One exception is #12 Shezaperfectdream (7-2), the morning line favorite after finishing third against Louisiana-breds in a $20,000 maiden claimer and sixth in a maiden special weight for Louisiana-breds.

On paper, Shezaperfectdream is dropping in class. But her first two starts came at Delta Downs, where the competition tends to be easier than at Fair Grounds.

Perhaps we can beat Shezaperfectdream with the first-time starter #6 Lassie’s Due Date (8-1). Trainer Justin Jeansonne wins at a 23% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and decent workouts at Fair Grounds (including half a mile in :48 4/5) suggest Lassie’s Due Date has at least a little ability. Since Friday’s field hasn’t come up very tough, Lassie’s Due Date should have every chance to score at a nice price in her first run under colors.

Good luck!