Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill Downs double

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 27 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, including a cold double wager.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: $175,000 Allowance Optional Claimer (six furlongs on dirt, 1:43 p.m. ET)

#5 Angkor (8-5) is dropping in class off a third-place finish in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga. During the spring at Churchill Downs, he won back-to-back $80,000 and $100,000 allowance optional claimers with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 98 and 100. In the $100,000 allowance optional claimer, he romped by 4 1/2 lengths over Closethegame Sugar, who has since won two stakes and placed at the Grade 1 level.

Returning to Churchill Downs and dropping in class can send Angkor back to the winner’s circle. Let’s bet him over the red-hot #4 Disco Ball (4-1) in an exacta, then single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Angkor (8-5)
• #4 Disco Ball (4-1)
• #2 Minnesota Ready (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 4
• $20 Double: 5 with 11
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 4: $150,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#11 Instant Replay (9-5) debuted in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month. He showed pace-pressing speed before tiring to finish fourth in a 12-horse field.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters and at a 33% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so the stats suggest Instant Replay is a serious win threat under jockey Florent Geroux, a 26% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

We’ll single Instant Replay to conclude our double wager, then throw in a win bet for good measure.

Selections

• #11 Instant Replay (9-5)
• #4 Jujubee (5-1)
• #7 Mazzeo (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Instant Replay

Charles Town: Race 4: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:32 p.m. ET)

The numbers are stark. Since the start of 2024, pacesetters have won a staggering 66% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town, while horses drawn on the rail have won 20% of such races.

Suffice to say, speed on the rail is dangerous over this track and distance, which is why we’re backing #1 Lemorian (8-5). The three-year-old filly made her Charles Town debut over this distance back in May and led all the way through quick fractions to win by half a length, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (81) for Friday’s conditions.

Lemorian hasn’t run since, but she’s turned in sharp workouts in preparation for her return (including a bullet three furlongs in :34 1/5) and should be tough to catch from the inside draw.

A large win bet is the way we’ll play.

Selections

• #1 Lemorian (8-5)
• #2 Marshall Peanut (9-2)
• #7 Fiber Strong (5-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #1 Lemorian

Good luck!