Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $6,201 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 1 at Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park, including tickets for Churchill’s $6,201 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Breeders’ Cup $10 Selected Races Money Back: Receive refund on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar on Friday and Saturday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:02 p.m. ET)

#4 Cant Stop Munnings (3-1) ran strongly in his Oct. 6 debut over this distance and class level at Keeneland. The son of Munnings was always close to the pace and fought on to finish third by two lengths with a strong 87 Brisnet Speed rating, three points higher than the par winning number (84) for Friday’s conditions.

Runner-up Render Judgment flattered the form of that race by returning to win his next. Cant Stop Munnings can do the same. Let’s bet him to win and key him over the Brad Cox-trained first-time starter #9 Guardian (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Cant Stop Munnings (3-1)
• #9 Guardian (5-2)
• #2 Reach (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Cant Stop Munnings
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 9
  Total: $30

Churchill Downs: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:31 p.m. ET)

#3 Muhimma (1-1) was much the best when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, pressing the pace before drawing off to beat a next-out winner by 7 1/2 lengths. Her reward was an 89 Brisnet Speed rating, four points higher than the par winning number (85) for Friday’s conditions.

Trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 27% rate with last-out maiden winners, so Muhimma should be ready to win right back. Let’s try betting Muhimma on top of an exacta using #8 Liam in the Dust (10-1) for second place. The latter finished second in the Pocahontas (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks two starts back.

Selections

• #3 Muhimma (1-1)
• #8 Liam in the Dust (10-1)
• #7 Evanescence (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 8

Gulfstream Park: Race 10: Cellars Shiraz S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:19 p.m. ET)

#12 Vive Veuve (9-5) went 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream Park grass earlier this year, winning a maiden special weight at the Sanibel Island S. Then she took her game on the road to New York and Kentucky, where she finished third in the Wonder Again (G2), Lake George (G3), and Music City (G2).

Returning to Gulfstream Park and dropping back down in class should make Vive Veuve mighty tough to beat. Let’s key her on top of an exacta using #10 De Regreso (8-1) and #4 Majestic Venezuela (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #12 Vive Veuve (9-5)
• #10 De Regreso (8-1)
• #4 Majestic Venezuela (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 12 with 4,10 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $6,201 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs on the last day of October, so there’s a $6,201 carryover available to chase on the first day of November. That’s a nice way to start the new month.

The prize pool is up for grabs straight away in race 1, a $50,000 starter allowance for two-year-olds racing one mile over the main track. A small seven-horse field has entered, which means there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

The morning-line favorite is #1 Optical (5-2), and we view him as the most likely winner. Optical struggled in his first three starts sprinting on dirt and running long on turf, but he improved dramatically in his first dirt route. Sent off at 6-1 in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Optical ran like an odds-on favorite, leading all the way and finishing fast (final quarter-mile in :23.95) to dominate by 14 lengths.

That runaway victory yielded an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, beating the par winning number for Friday’s conditions (78) by four points.

Optical subsequently joined the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, but he ran into trouble around the first turn and wound up being pulled up. He’s bounced back with a couple of half-mile workouts at Churchill Downs, including a swift one in :47 3/5, and the son of City of Light has every chance to shine while dropping down the class ladder.

We recommend keying Optical on top of your Super High 5 tickets. Underneath, emphasize #7 Hedge (3-1) and #6 Blake James (7-2).

Hedge broke his maiden in a seven-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer, then gobbled up ground late to finish second by 4 1/2 lengths in a six-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. The latter effort earned an 83 Brisnet Speed rating, so Hedge is fast enough to factor even while stretching out over one mile for the first time.

As for Blake James, he graduated in a six-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer, then stretched out over seven furlongs to finish a rallying third in a $50,000 starter allowance at Keeneland. The son of Audible has the pedigree to handle one mile and can absolutely finish in the top five while sticking to the same class level as his previous start.

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 7 with 6 with 4,5 with 2,3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 6 with 2,3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 2,3,4,5 with 6 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6 with 7 with 4,5 with 2,3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,5 with 7 with 6 with 2,3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,5 with 7 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 ($6)
  Total: $36

Good luck!