Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Cold double at Turfway

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Jan. 5 at Turfway Park and Delta Downs, along with a horse to single in the $1,834 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delta Downs: Race 2: Sam’s Town S. (five furlongs, 6:33 p.m. ET)

#2 Empire of Gold (3-1) won the 2023 Sam’s Town S. with a sharp 95 Brisnet Speed rating, and he improved on that number two starts back when dominating a five-furlong allowance at Remington Park with a 99 Brisnet Speed rating.

We’ll forgive Empire of Gold’s last-out misfire in the six-furlong Bet On Sunshine S. at Churchill Downs, since he was facing a deep field including next-out winners Tejano Twist and Miles Ahead. The Sam’s Town looks like an easier spot, and dropping down to five furlongs at Delta Downs can trigger a winning run.

Selections

• #2 Empire of Gold (3-1)
• #5 Todo Fino (9-5)
• #4 Devil’s Tower (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Empire of Gold

Turfway Park: Race 4: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Barbratina (5-2) dominated her debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park, rallying from off the pace to win by five lengths with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating. She ran similarly well when stepping up in class for a $100,000 allowance optional claimer traveling 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying from 7 1/4 lengths behind to finish second by one length with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other fillies in Friday’s field have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83, so Barbratina is the fastest entrant on paper. Closers fare well at Turfway Park, and hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) is picking up the mount, so all signs suggest Barbratina will be tough to beat.

Let’s bet Barbratina to win and single her to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Barbratina (5-2)
• #2 Only Emotions (5-1)
• #7 J Rivers (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Barbratina
• $5 Double: 1 with 5
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Eusebius (7-2) ran well when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. Even though the race featured remarkably fast closing fractions courtesy of 7 3/4-length winner Mystik Dan, Eusebius rallied gamely from eighth to snatch runner-up honors by a nose.

Eusebius is adding Lasix for his three-year-old debut and figures to appreciate switching to Turfway’s closer-friendly Tapeta track. Let’s bet him to win (taking advantage of the Winter Money Back promotion) and single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #5 Eusebius (7-2)
• #6 Sharp Shot (5-1)
• #4 Epic Ride (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Eusebius

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $1,834 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

Upset winners were abundant on Thursday at Fair Grounds. The sequence for the $1 Pick 6 featured winners starting at 9-1, 8-1, 24-1, and 11-1. When the dust settled, no one managed to select more than four winners, leading to a $1,834 Pick 6 carryover for Friday’s card.

A total of 56 horses (averaging about 9.3 per race) have entered Friday’s Pick 6 sequence, which adds up to 633,600 possible outcomes. That’s actually not too bad as far as Pick 6s go, so budget bettors who can find a reliable single to build tickets around should be able to assemble competitive tickets without breaking the bank.

Perhaps the best single possibility can be found in Race 6, a $5,000 starter allowance for horses who have started for a claiming price of $5,000 or less in their last three starts. With only eight entries, the one-mile and 70-yard dirt contest features one of the smallest fields in the Pick 6 sequence.

The field might be on the small side, but it isn’t lacking in speed horses. Many of the entrants have set or pressed the pace in recent starts, which should ensure that the race unfolds at an honest tempo. That’s good news for morning line favorite #1 My Bariley (5-2), a veteran of 68 starts making his 10-year-old debut.

My Bariley campaigned on turf during his early years, even winning the 2017 Hawthorne Derby and 2018 Mystic Lake Mile S. He’s not as fast as he used to be, but age and experience—it seems—have made him more versatile. These days he’s a capable dirt horse, and at Fair Grounds last month he posted back-to-back victories in a $5,000 claimer and a $10,000 starter optional claimer. Both of those races were held over one mile and 70 yards, and in both cases My Bariley launched strong rallies from off the pace to prevail with Brisnet Speed ratings of 79 and 81.

Some Pick 6 bettors might be tempted to include #8 Kentucky Peerless (8-1) as backup, since he earned back-to-back 82 Brisnet Speed ratings when wiring a pair of $5,000 claimers at Remington Park during the fall. But Kentucky Peerless posts his best numbers when he gets to the lead, and he’s lost by double-digit margins the last three times he’s been beaten to the front, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 73, 67, and 76.

With all the speed in Friday’s field, My Bariley should have every chance to reel in Kentucky Peerless and deliver victory as a Pick 6 single.

Good luck!