Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Double-digit longshots at Keeneland

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 11 at Keeneland and Delta Downs, including double-digit longshots to play in Keeneland’s $5,112 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Hoosier Park $2,500 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 on Hoosier Champions Night at Hoosier Park on Friday to earn your share of a $2,500 prize pool.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the eight Indiana Sires Final races on Friday.
• Everest Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill Gardens (AUS).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 7: Allowance (one mile on turf, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#10 Reining Flowers (5-2) broke her maiden racing 1 1/16 miles on turf at Saratoga, then followed up with a close third-place finish in the P. G. Johnson S. over the same course and distance. She was beaten only by Totally Justified and Virgin Colada, two fillies who returned to place in graded stakes.

Dropping in class for a one-mile allowance at Keeneland should send Reining Flowers to the winner’s circle under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. Let’s single her to start a pair of double wagers.

Selections

• #10 Reining Flowers (5-2)
• #4 Lady Orient (9-2)
• #6 Shotgun Wedding (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 Double: 10 with 4
• $8 Double: 10 with 1
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:44 p.m. ET)

A couple of first-time starters enter off eye-catching workouts. #4 Patch Adams (5-2), a son of five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief, recently clocked a bullet five furlongs from the Churchill Downs starting gate in :59 1/5 for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.

Meanwhile, #1 Knicks Glory (10-1) has been working at Keeneland, traveling half a mile in :47 4/5, five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5, and half a mile from the starting gate in a swift :46 1/5.

We’ll use Patch Adams and Knicks Glory to conclude our double wagers from race 7. Then we’ll box them in a small exacta.

Selections

• #4 Patch Adams (5-2)
• #1 Knicks Glory (10-1)
• #2 T Kraft (4-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: box 1,4 ($10)

Delta Downs: Race 5: Louisiana Jewel S. (seven furlongs on dirt, 7:42 p.m. ET)

#2 Secret Faith (9-5) is undefeated in three starts. Against non-state-restricted competition, she crushed her debut by 6 1/4 lengths before battling to victory in the Texas Thoroughbred Association Futurity. Then she tackled the Louisiana-bred ranks in the D. S. Shine Young Futurity and obliterated her foes by 14 lengths.

Secret Faith’s stakes wins have yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 84 and 92. None of her rivals in the Louisiana Jewel have earned a number higher than 71, so Secret Faith should be mighty tough to beat while sticking to the Louisiana-bred ranks.

#5 Warrior’s Justice (3-1), a 5 1/4-length winner of a non-state-restricted maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Secret Faith (9-5)
• #5 Warrior’s Justice (3-1)
• #6 Quite the Catch (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 5

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 10: $5,112 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Super High 5 on Thursday at Keeneland, triggering a $5,112 carryover into Friday’s card.

To earn a share of the prize pool, you’ll have to select the top five finishers (in order) in race 10, a $50,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. That’s a task easier said than done, because the overflow field of 13 (including one also-eligible entrant) is extremely competitive on paper.

It’s difficult to plan wagers in advance of race-day changes because morning-line favorite #13 Arrasou (3-1) — potentially a horse to key on top after cracking the trifecta in three of her four starts against maiden special weight company — is the also-eligible and needs a scratch in order to compete.

However, we can recommend four double-digit longshots worth including on your tickets regardless of whether Arrasou competes. They are:

#2 Eight Days Sober (20-1): This three-year-old filly had some traffic trouble when finishing third in her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Turfway Park. Even still, she earned an encouraging 74 Brisnet Speed rating. She subsequently disappeared from the work tab following an 11th-place finish in a one-mile maiden special weight, but she’s cranked out half a dozen workouts for her return and shouldn’t be underestimated while facing easier company and switching from Tapeta to dirt. Take note, trainer Anna Navarrete wins at a 21% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

#4 Walk Street (20-1): All five of Walk Street’s starts have come against maiden special weight competition on turf, including a runner-up finish sprinting five furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are light, but Walk Street is eligible to improve while switching to dirt and dropping in class for trainer Victoria Oliver, who wins at a 16% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time.

#5 Classic Mystery (15-1): Classic Mystery hasn’t missed the board in four starts on dirt. Some bettors may underestimate the daughter of Flatter since she’s exiting a runner-up finish in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs and is now ascending the class ladder. But during the spring at Churchill, she placed third in a $100,000 maiden claimer, so there’s no reason to think Classic Mystery can’t vie for a top-five finish at the $50,000 level. Certainly her best Brisnet Speed ratings (71 and 70) are good enough to put her in the hunt here.

#7 Captive Heart (10-1): Captive Heart broke slowly and never factored when finishing seventh in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs. But that was a maiden special weight, and she was beaten only 6 1/4 lengths in a 12-horse field. That effort yielded a respectable 71 Brisnet Speed rating, and since trainer Wayne Catalano strikes at a 15% rate with second-time starters, it’s easy to make a case for Captive Heart to challenge while dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer for her second try.

Good luck!