Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: First-time starter at 10-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds, including analysis of Super High 5 and Pick 6 carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Churchill Downs $3,000 Three Pick 3 Hit It & Split It: Hit three Pick 3s at Churchill Downs on any day of the fall meet to split a $3,000 daily prize pool, starting Oct. 30.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 5:45 p.m. ET)

In this maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares, #10 Mo for Us (3-1) is a formidable win threat. She was beaten a nose when debuting over this track, distance, and class level back in March, and she’s since cracked the trifecta in four of her five starts against non-state-restricted competition at Oaklawn Park and Churchill Downs.

With more experience under her belt, Mo for Us can return to the conditions of her debut and deliver victory under red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz, a 35% winner to start the Fair Grounds meet. A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #10 Mo for Us (3-1)
• #4 About to Set Sail (9-2)
• #1 Mo Diva (6-1)

Wagers

• $50 to win on #10 Mo for Us

Churchill Downs: Race 12: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 6:18 p.m. ET)

There are reasons to believe #5 Fully Volatile (10-1) can factor on debut at double-digit odds. He’s a son of Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile, who sires 21% winners from first-time starters.  And he’s put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs from the Churchill Downs training track starting gate in 1:00 3/5.

Some bettors may hesitate to back Fully Volatile because trainer Eric Heitzmann has won with only 8% of his first-time starters since 2021. But that percentage isn’t much lower than Heitzmann’s 9% win rate with all starters during that timeframe, so we’re willing to bet Fully Volatile can become one of Heitzmann’s winning first-time starters.

Selections

• #5 Fully Volatile (10-1)
• #2 Steppe (4-1)
• #8 Bermuda Blitz (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Fully Volatile

Del Mar: Race 8: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#2 Accuracy (3-5) obliterated a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month, leading all the way to win by 15 lengths with a powerful 107 Brisnet Speed rating.

If Accuracy can replicate that performance while heading to Del Mar for an allowance optional claimer, her four rivals are likely running for second place. Let’s bet Accuracy over #4 Ultimate Authority (2-1), the second-fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Accuracy (3-5)
• #4 Ultimate Authority (2-1)
• #1 Indy’s Star (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 4

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $3,897 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

Feel like chasing a post-Thanksgiving carryover? You have multiple non-jackpot options to choose from, including a $3,897 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs.

The prize pool for the $1 wager is up for grabs in Race 1, a six-furlong maiden special weight that drew a field of eight three-year-olds. One horse we recommend using on your tickets, including on top, is #3 Anthonian (5-1), the fourth choice on the morning line.

Anthonian started twice in September 2023. He didn’t show much in his debut on turf at Kentucky Downs, finishing ninth, but the caliber of competition was strong—the top three finishers have all returned to win or place at the graded stakes level.

Anthonian improved when switching to dirt for his second start. In a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, he closed some ground to finish fourth by 1 1/2 lengths against Honor Marie, who went on to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and finish second in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Unfortunately, Anthonian disappeared from the work tab after that effort, and he hasn’t raced since. But he returned to serious training in mid-August and has turned in a bevy of sharp workouts since then, including a bullet half-mile in :46 4/5 at Churchill Downs. If Anthonian has improved at all with maturity, he can visit the winner’s circle in his return.

Other horses to use include #2 Walstib (7-2), who hasn’t missed the board in three maiden special weights; #4 Ahandfulofcandy (4-1), a trifecta finisher in three starts against maiden special weight foes; and #5 Wistucky (3-1), who has knocked heads with a number of accomplished horses during his career.

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 6,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 6,8 with 2,4,5 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4,5 with 3 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 6,8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4,5 with 3 with 2,4,5 with 6,8 with 2,4,5 ($12)
  Total: $48

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $9,615 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Pick 6 on Thanksgiving Day at Fair Grounds, triggering a $9,615 carryover into Friday’s card.

The final leg of the sequence is Race 9, the above-mentioned maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares in which #10 Mo for Us (3-1) is our top choice. Dropping in class out of non-state-restricted maiden special weights makes Mo for Us such a compelling favorite that we recommend singling her to conclude the Pick 6.

Good luck!