Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Give Life can win on debut

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 2 at Delaware Park and Colonial Downs, including non-favored runners to use in Colonial’s $733 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Fridays at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Hastings $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hastings Racecourse.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 1: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Onyx Ten (2-1) debuted with a third-place finish over this track, distance, and class level on July 3. The Gary Capuano trainee pressed the early pace before staying on to finish only 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating. That is higher than the par winning number (72) for Friday’s conditions.

Onyx Ten has since breezed a bullet half-mile in :48 at Delaware Park. Capuano wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters and has compiled a 33% win rate at Delaware this meet, so the stats suggest Onyx Ten will graduate while sticking to the same conditions as his debut.

#1 Golden Philly (4-1) and #4 Ade (3-1) can battle to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Onyx Ten (2-1)
• #1 Golden Philly (4-1)
• #4 Ade (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($20)

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:33 p.m. ET)

#2 Gangster (5-2) debuted in a May 17 maiden special weight sprinting five furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He raced in third place at every call and earned a 67 Brisnet Speed rating.

Now Gangster is tackling a maiden special weight for Virginia-restricted two-year-olds at Colonial Downs. The competition should be a bit easier, and sharp recent workouts at Colonial suggest Gangster is ready to shine for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who wins at a solid 18% rate with second-time starters.

Let’s try a win bet.

Selections

• #2 Gangster (5-2)
• #3 Reggie Runs Rogue (7-2)
• #9 Kitty’s Son (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Gangster

Colonial Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:05 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Arnaud Delacour has gone 5-for-13 (38%) saddling two-year-olds over the Colonial Downs turf course. This impressive tally of success points to #6 Belle of the South (3-1) as a key win threat.

Belle of the South has started twice against maiden special weight company on dirt, finishing fifth (beaten only 3 1/4 lengths) at Pimlico before recording a runner-up finish at Delaware Park. Delacour wins at 25% rate with horses running on turf for the first time, and hot jockey Victor Carrasco (a 29% winner at Colonial this meet) is named to ride, so let’s bet Belle of the South to win.

Selections

• #6 Belle of the South (3-1)
• #1 It’s Witchcraft (2-1)
• #7 Young At Heart (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Belle of the South

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $733 Pick 6 carryover (6:05 p.m. ET)

The $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs, with its modest 15% takeout rate, has tossed up a non-jackpot carryover worth $733 for Friday’s card.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a few non-favored runners worth including on your tickets:

Race 4: #6 Belle of the South (3-1)

For reasons outlined above, we view Belle of the South as a win threat in this 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles.

Race 5: #1 Beautiful Gorgeous (9-2)

As the second choice in a seven-horse field, Beautiful Gorgeous can’t really be considered a longshot. But since favored #7 Lady Ensign (1-1) is a very short price on the morning line, Beautiful Gorgeous could play like a longshot in the Pick 6 if she springs an upset. Which isn’t out of the question.

Race 5 is a $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares which have never won two races. The problem for Lady Ensign is the fact Race 5 is taking place over one mile on turf, and Lady Ensign has done her best work sprinting. Indeed, all eight of her top-three finishes have come dashing 5 1/2 furlongs to six furlongs, and in her lone start running one mile she finished fifth by a wide margin in a maiden special weight on dirt at Laurel.

Maybe it was the dirt and not the distance that tripped up Lady Ensign, but it’s hard to view her as a lock to win while stretching out significantly in distance, especially since she’s lost a couple of recent $30,000 claimers for non-winners of two races over the Laurel grass.

Beautiful Gorgeous is a logical upset threat. She’s dropping in class out of a 1 1/16-mile $45,000 claimer for non-winners of two races at Laurel, in which she finished fifth by 6 1/2 lengths. She’s run well over the Colonial Downs lawn in the past (her lone victory came here in August 2023), and her Brisnet Speed ratings stack up well against Friday’s field. If Lady Ensign tires over the longer trip, Beautiful Gorgeous can claim first prize.

Race 6: #5 Give Life (4-1)

Trainer Ignacio Correas IV doesn’t often saddle winning first-time starters, so Give Life could get overlooked in this wide-open 5 1/2-furlong grass maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. But 38% of Correas-trained first-time starters finish in the top three, so they frequently run well, and Give Life may be ready to fare even better than usual and secure a victory.

A two-year-old daughter of the Group 1-winning juvenile Caravaggio, Give Life was produced by the unraced mare Call Mariah, who has previously foaled Texas Turf Mile winner Bodecream and the Group 3-placed Califante. This is a pedigree geared top and bottom toward success on turf and also early maturity.

Give Life has put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs from the Keeneland starting gate in 1:00 3/5. Correas has compiled a 4-1-1-1 (25%) record at Colonial Downs this meet while jockey Forest Boyce has gone 4-for-19 (21%), so how can we leave Give Life off our Pick 6 tickets? Don’t be surprised if she visits the winner’s circle.

Good luck!