Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $33,775 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 19 at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Charles Town, along with horses to play in two rich carryovers at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Double Down: Hit two double wagers in a single day at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (up to 50% per day) on all winning double wagers for the day, every Wednesday through Friday in April.
• 15% Power Hour Profit Boost: Receive a 15% bonus on all winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers (up to $25 for the day) on any eligible race between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. ET.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x reward points on all harness racing wagers (excluding show bets) on Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 3:46 p.m. ET)

Trainer George Weaver knows how to prepare first-time starters to win over Gulfstream’s Tapeta track. Since the introduction of Tapeta, Weaver has gone 2-for-3 (67%) debuting horses over the surface, which includes a 1-for-2 (50%) record with horses debuting in routes.

These stats bode well for #4 What Plan (6-1), a son of two-time Horse of the Year and stamina influence Curlin. What Plan breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Palm Beach Downs last Saturday and looks ready to challenge under jockey Emisael Jaramillo, who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with Weaver over the last two months.

If those 6-1 morning line odds hold up, we’ll be eager to place a win bet on What Plan.

Selections

• #4 What Plan (6-1)
• #7 Swift Delivery (4-1)
• #2 Doctor’s Orders (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 What Plan

Oaklawn Park: Race 10: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 6:28 p.m. ET)

#9 Day Jo (12-1) has been competing against non-state-restricted competition at Oaklawn, finishing sixth in $25,000 and $20,000 maiden claimers. Now he’s tackling a $30,000 maiden claimer for horses bred in Arkansas, where the competition may actually be easier.

Day Jo showed speed in his most recent start, and on Friday he’ll be guided by apprentice jockey Carlos Barbosa, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance. Day Jo is also getting a three-pound weight break since he’s entered for $25,000 instead of $30,000, so all told he’ll tote only 115 pounds.

For these reasons, we’ll place a modest win bet on Day Jo and play him in the exacta with logical favorite #12 Classic Cinema (9-5), who is dropping in class after finishing third in a $45,000 maiden claimer for Arkansas-breds at Oaklawn:

Selections

• #9 Day Jo (12-1)
• #12 Classic Cinema (9-5)
• #6 String Theory (3-1)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #9 Day Jo
• $6 Exacta: 12 with 9
• $2 Exacta: 9 with 12
  Total: $20

Charles Town: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:32 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much speed entered in this 6 1/2-furlong dash, so we’ll take a shot backing #7 Sommer Velvet (5-1). Two starts back, she set an easy pace in a seven-furlong sprint over this track and class level before battling on to finish second, though she was subsequently disqualified to fifth place.

That effort yielded a respectable 72 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the par winning number (71) for Friday’s conditions. If Sommer Velvet can secure another easy lead, she can challenge for victory at enticing odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Sommer Velvet (5-1)
• #3 Serene Warrior (7-2)
• #6 Timeisgolden (9-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Sommer Velvet

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $33,775 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 10: $9,780 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

There are multiple non-jackpot carryovers available to pursue on Friday at Keeneland. The $1 Pick 6 features the biggest prize pool at $33,775, but the $1 Super High 5 also boasts an enticing carryover worth $9,780.

Pick 6 bettors looking for a single to build tickets around are advised to check out Race 9, the Doubledogdare (G3) for older fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Only seven horses have entered, so it’s the smallest field in the Pick 6 sequence.

We’re keen to support Juddmonte homebred #3 Scylla (8-5), a beautifully bred daughter of three-time leading sire Tapit out of champion Close Hatches. She opened her career with a pair of impressive victories in 2023, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland by 2 1/2 lengths before dominating a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer by 8 1/4 lengths.

Those efforts yielded solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 97 and 91, but Scylla improved to a career-best 98 when ending a 9 1/2-month layoff in a one-mile $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park last month. In her comeback, Scylla failed by only a neck to outduel pacesetter Beth’s Dream in a long homestretch battle.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott wins at a 20% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, and Scylla has posted a pair of bullet workouts at Payson Park this month, so all signs suggest she’ll improve in her second run of the season. She looks ready to make her graded stakes debut a winning one.

As for the Super High 5, it’s available to play in Race 10, a one-mile turf allowance for older horses. The morning line favorite in the 11-horse field is #11 Northern Invader (9-5), winner of the Gio Ponti S. and placed in a pair of listed stakes last year. But avoiding a wide trip from the far outside post could be tricky, and it’s worth noting Northern Invader finished behind #3 Wonderful Justice (4-1) when kicking off 2024 with a fourth-place finish in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds last month. Northern Invader is an obvious top-three contender at Keeneland, but he’s not necessarily a lock to win.

One price horse worth considering is #7 Scoobie Quando (12-1). An accomplished Tapeta performer who won a $25,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Turfway Park last month, Scoobie Quando is 0-for-2 on turf, but his grass defeats came in stakes. He finished 11th in a deep edition of the American Turf (G2) and fourth in the Audubon S., both at Churchill Downs last spring. He may find Friday’s allowance competition more manageable, making his 12-1 morning line odds enticing.

Good luck!