Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ladan can outrun 30-1 odds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 22 at Turfway Park, along with analysis of the $3,054 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any Friday from Dec. 1 through Dec. 29 to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#8 Squash Blossom (9-2) wasn’t disgraced when returning from a long layoff in a $20,000 maiden claimer over the Churchill Downs dirt last month, rallying after a troubled start to finish fifth by seven lengths.

Trainer Dean Ward has compiled a solid 12-2-2-2 record at Turfway since 2021, and hot jockey Luan Machado (a 24% winner this meet) is named to ride, so Squash Blossom is eligible to vie for victory while dropping down the class ladder and switching to Tapeta. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Squash Blossom (9-2)
• #11 Domina (4-1)
• #1 Alter the Stars (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Squash Blossom

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

A couple of first-time starters look formidable in this maiden dash for juveniles. #6 Pure Force (2-1), from the high-percentage barn of trainer Brad Cox, has been posting sharp workouts at Churchill Downs and looks ready to vie for victory under hot apprentice jockey Axel Concepcion, who has gone 4-for-10 (40%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Meanwhile, #9 Sand Pipes (8-1) is a compelling live longshot. The son of Summer Front is trained by Paulo Lobo, who has compiled a terrific 7-for-17 (41%) record saddling first-time starters in sprints at Turfway since 2022. That includes a 2-for-5 (40%) tally with juveniles.

Let’s place a win bet on Sand Pipes, then box him in the exacta with Pure Force, favoring the presumably lower-paying combination with Pure Force on top.

Selections

• #9 Sand Pipes (8-1)
• #6 Pure Force (2-1)
• #10 Linzer (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Sand Pipes
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 9
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 6
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#11 Ladan (30-1) is a big longshot on the morning line, but she’s competed exclusively against maiden special weight company so far and managed to place third in a six-furlong sprint at Turfway Park last December.

Returning to Tapeta and dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer can help Ladan deliver a competitive showing in her third start back from a lengthy layoff. Her two comeback runs were rather encouraging, as she finished fourth in a pair of maiden special weights over the Churchill Downs main track.

We’ll bet Ladan to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #11 Ladan (30-1)
• #8 Dream Fly (9-2)
• #7 Ava’s Storm (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Ladan

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 4: $3,054 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s $3,054 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds, you’ll have to decipher a challenging sequence containing a large number of horses and possible outcomes.

Let’s crunch some numbers. The sequence for the $1 wager contains 66 horses (averaging 11 per race) before scratches, which works out to 1,520,640 possible combinations. Those numbers are guaranteed to drop somewhat once scratches are in (there are four also-eligible entrants in the sequence), but any way you slice it, narrowing down tickets will be difficult.

The feature event of the afternoon is Race 7, the Joseph E. Spanky Broussard Memorial S. for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on dirt. The eight-horse field is the smallest in the Pick 6 sequence, so mathematically speaking it’s a good place to seek a single.

The morning line favorite is #5 Hidden Connection (5-2), winner of the 2021 Pocahontas (G3) as a juvenile. Hidden Connection opened her career with back-to-back wins, but has gone only 1-for-14 since then, scoring her lone victory during that streak in a December 2022 $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. She’s 0-for-8 in 2023, and while her record this season includes a quartet of runner-up finishes in Grade 3 stakes, she arrives at Fair Grounds off a last-place finish in the Chilukki (G3) at Churchill Downs.

There’s certainly a chance Hidden Connection will bounce back in the Broussard Memorial, and Pick 6 bettors with large budgets might want to include her on their tickets. But Hidden Connection’s lengthy winless streak suggests that, perhaps, bettors playing on budgets can exclude her and instead single #2 The Alys Look (3-1).

The Alys Look hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts at Fair Grounds. Between December 2022 and March 2023, she broke her maiden by seven lengths, finished second in the Untapable S., took home top honors in the Silverbulletday S., and finished third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Those three stakes were all Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifiers.

Speaking of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), The Alys Look finished third in that prestigious contest, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths by three-time Grade 1 winner Pretty Mischievous. The Alys Look went to the sidelines following a sixth-place finish in the Summertime Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita, but returned to serious training in October and came back nicely in a 1 1/16-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, closing from behind a slow pace to prevail by one length.

The Alys Look has upside for improvement in her second start back, especially if she encounters more pace to chase. Trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a 22% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so we’re optimistic The Alys Look will deliver a career-best performance in the Broussard Memorial, setting the stage for victory at a fair price.

Good luck!