Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Santa Anita’s $153,105 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 25 at Keeneland, Santa Anita, and Remington Park, including a horse to single in Santa Anita’s $153,105 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Everest Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Royal Randwick (AUS).

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#11 Problem Solved (5-2), a son of champion two-year-old Game Winner, has put together a flashy work tab that's highlighted by five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5 at Keeneland. The Gary and Mary West homebred looks ready to factor on debut for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 23% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Let’s bet Problem Solved to win and key him over East Coast raider #7 Ennis Town (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #11 Problem Solved (5-2)
• #7 Ennis Town (4-1)
• #5 Voila Magic (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Problem Solved
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 7
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 2: Anoakia S. (six furlongs on dirt, 4:30 p.m. ET)

This sprint for two-year-old fillies is absolutely packed with pace, so let’s take a shot backing #4 Casalu (6-1), one of three entrants conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Casalu has tactical speed but has also shown some tractability, including when finishing second in the one-mile Surfer Girl (G3) on turf last time out. Switching from turf to dirt shouldn’t be an issue; during the summer at Del Mar, she broke her maiden on dirt before placing third against a quality field in the six-furlong Sorrento (G3).

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Casalu (6-1)
• #5 Silent Law (1-1)
• #3 Practical Dream (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Casalu

Remington Park: Race 10: Clever Trevor S. (seven furlongs on dirt, 11:51 p.m. ET)

#5 Jolly Samurai (3-1) is unbeaten in two starts at Remington Park. After rallying to win his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs, he stretched out over six furlongs and closed with determination to win the Kip Deville S.

The Kip Deville third-place finisher, #8 Three Echoes (7-2), had previously placed third in the Sanford (G3) and Tremont S. at Saratoga, so it’s safe to say Jolly Samurai beat a nice field. We’ll count on him to keep his unbeaten record intact in the Clever Trevor, betting him to win and keying him over Three Echoes in a small exacta.

Selections

• #5 Jolly Samurai (3-1)
• #8 Three Echoes (7-2)
• #4 Dominant Spirit (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 Jolly Samurai
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita: Race 4: $153,105 Pick 6 carryover (5:31 p.m. ET)

The $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita went unsolved on both Saturday and Sunday last week, generating a double carryover worth $153,105 for Friday’s card.

Some bettors figure to start their ticket assembly process by singling first-time starter #6 Just Deal (6-5), the morning-line favorite in race 6, a $32,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. A son of champion juvenile Good Magic, Just Deal has posted some eye-catching workout times for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, including five furlongs from the Los Alamitos starting gate in :59 1/5 last week.

But it’s worth noting Baffert almost never debuts horses in maiden claimers, and his lofty win percentage with all first-time starters (30%) drops to only 13% with horses getting started at the maiden claiming level. For this reason, Just Deal may prove vulnerable.

Instead, we recommend singling #6 A Toast to Lanie (7-5) in race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6. It’s a $50,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and these conditions should suit A Toast to Lanie just fine.

A Toast to Lanie debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden claimer for California-breds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar, where she led all the way to beat a next-out winner by half a length. She followed up with a fine try in a six-furlong $50,000 starter allowance at Del Mar, finishing second after carving out a quick pace.

With improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 86 under her belt, A Toast to Lanie owns the highest recent numbers in Thursday’s field. Only one of her rivals, #5 Side by Side (10-1), has ever run faster, and A Toast to Lanie finished 4 3/4 lengths clear of Side by Side in the above-mentioned $50,000 starter allowance at Del Mar. In short, the stage is set for A Toast to Lanie to deliver a decisive victory.

Good luck!