Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Santa Anita’s $83,940 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 4, at Keeneland and Aqueduct, along with non-favored horses to play in Santa Anita’s $83,940 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Keeneland $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Keeneland on any day of the October meet to earn your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#3 Test Score (3-1) has shown promise in two starts against tough rivals. In his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, he finished second by 2 1/4 lengths against Governor Sam, who has since won two stakes. In his second start, Test Score ran fifth in the With Anticipation (G3), beaten 3 1/4 lengths by next-out Pilgrim (G2) winner Zulu Kingdom.

Dropping back down into the maiden special weight ranks at Keeneland should put Test Score in win contention for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Manny Franco and Graham Motion, who have gone 2-for-4 (50%) teaming up together over the last two months. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Test Score (3-1)
• #8 West Beach (5-2)
• #1 Scorpius (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Test Score

Aqueduct: Race 7: Waya (G3, 1 3/8 miles on turf, 3:48 p.m. ET)

#7 McKulick (9-5) was compromised by an incredibly slow pace when finishing third against gate-to-wire winner #6 Idea Generation (5-1) in the Flower Bowl (G2) last time out.

If a fairer pace unfolds in the Waya, McKulick can turn the tables. She defeated Idea Generation by two lengths in this race last year, and when she got an honest pace to chase in the Glens Falls (G2) two starts back, she won decisively by 2 1/4 lengths.

Let’s bet McKulick over Idea Generation and recent Kentucky Downs allowance winner #2 Avenue Niel (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 McKulick (9-5)
• #2 Avenue Niel (10-1)
• #6 Idea Generation (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 2,6 ($30)

Keeneland: Race 9: Alcibiades (G1, 1 1/16 miles on dirt, 5:16 p.m. ET)

Who is the fastest filly in this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective? Believe it or not, it’s longshot #1 Continuity (20-1). She posted a 93 Brisnet Speed rating when trouncing a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Colonial Downs by seven lengths.

RELATED: All Stakes Pick 3 at Keeneland on Friday

If Continuity can reproduce that level of form while stepping up in class and distance, she’s a threat to surprise at double-digit odds. We’ll take a shot betting her to win and playing her with Spinaway (G1) winner #8 Immersive (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Continuity (20-1)
• #8 Immersive (2-1)
• #6 Quickick (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Continuity
• $7 Exacta: 8 with 1
• $3 Exacta: 1 with 8
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita: Race 4: $83,940 Pick 6 carryover (5:30 p.m. ET)

A busy week at Santa Anita kicks off on a high note with an $83,940 carryover up for grabs in the $2 Pick 6.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of promising non-favored horses to include on your tickets:

Race 5: #8 Its a Cinch (15-1)

The second leg of the Pick 6 is a maiden special weight for California-bred juveniles sprinting six furlongs on turf. We definitely want to use morning-line favorite #7 Cullen J (7-5), who debuted with a fourth-place finish in a non-state restricted maiden special weight dashing five furlongs over the Del Mar lawn.

But Its a Cinch also warrants inclusion at dramatically higher odds. He exits a fourth-place finish in a six-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Del Mar, a quick contest from which runner-up Kalea Bay returned to win his next start decisively.

Its a Cinch earned a 70 Brisnet Speed rating, not far off the 76 posted by Cullen J. As a son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) runner-up Om, who is siring 30% winners from first-time turf starters, Its a Cinch has the pedigree to shine while switching from dirt to turf. Any improvement could put him in the hunt for victory.

Race 9: #5 Lee’s Baby Girl (6-1)

#4 Sea Runner (7-5) is a logical morning-line favorite after finishing third in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf S., beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Thought Process. But don’t overlook third choice Lee’s Baby Girl, who might be an even more likely winner.

Lee’s Baby Girl has shown talent on both dirt and turf. Her two turf tries have been particularly nice, as she’s finished second in both. On Aug. 17, she tackled a one-mile maiden special weight over the Del Mar lawn and carved out the pace before staying on to finish only 3 1/2 lengths behind Thought Process.

A bare reading of respective form against Thought Process suggests Lee’s Baby Girl is every bit as good as Sea Runner, and while cross-comparing performances in this manner can be risky, for Pick 6 purposes we wouldn’t dare exclude Lee’s Baby Girl from our tickets.

Good luck!