Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $116,882 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 12 at Gulfstream Park and Colonial Downs, along with horses to play in Pick 6 carryovers at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Fridays at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 daily prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $35,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on turf, 12:55 p.m. ET)

#4 Stubold (5-2) endured a troubled start when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track, and she never recovered on her way to finishing sixth in a fast-paced race.

Now Stubold is adding blinkers and dropping in class for a $35,000 maiden claimer. Whether this race stays on grass or is rained off the turf, this daughter of Sky Mesa is eligible to improve while switching surfaces for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, a 17% winner with second-time starters.

Let’s try a win bet on Stubold.

Selections

• #4 Stubold (5-2)
• #7 Blinging Burr (5-1)
• #1 Balala (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Stubold

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:22 p.m. ET)

#3 Gulfstream Mary D (8-1) hails from the first crop of foals sired by Kentucky Derby (G1) winner and Horse of the Year Authentic. The bay filly has put together a respectable work tab capped off by half a mile in :48 4/5, and it’s encouraging to note trainer Steve Dwoskin has gone 2-for-3 (67%) debuting juveniles at Gulfstream Park since 2023.

With these appealing factors in Gulfstream Mary D’s corner, her 8-1 morning line odds are enticing. Let’s bet her to win and key her over logical favorite #11 Unchained Elaine (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Gulfstream Mary D (8-1)
• #11 Unchained Elaine (7-2)
• #1 The Beach Goes On (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Gulfstream Mary D
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 11
  Total: $25

Colonial Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Whether this race stays on turf or is switched to dirt, #4 Candycrumbs (4-1) looks like a formidable win threat. He finished second when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Florida-breds at Gulfstream last month, earning a respectable 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

Candycrumbs breezed a sharp half-mile in :48 1/5 earlier this month and is eligible to move forward for trainer Mary Lightner, a lofty 40% winner with second-time starters. We know he handles dirt, and as a son of Valiant Minister (who sires 19% winners on turf), transitioning to grass shouldn’t be an issue either.

At 4-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Candycrumbs (4-1)
• #1 Gangster (7-2)
• #10 Stormy Flight (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Candycrumbs

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 5: $116,882 Pick 6 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Pick 6 on opening day at Saratoga, triggering a massive non-jackpot $116,882 carryover into Friday’s card.

One of two stakes in the sequence is Race 9, the $150,000 Coronation Cup S. for three-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. With morning line favorite #10 Star of Mystery (9-5) expected to scratch and compete in Sunday’s Quick Call (G3) instead, the Coronation Cup field looks wide-open.

One price horse we strongly recommend including is #1 Toupie (8-1). The daughter of Uncle Mo hasn’t missed the exacta in four turf sprints starts, all against stakes competition. Last time out, she pounced to a 2 1/2-length triumph in the 5 1/2-furlong Stormy Blues S. at Laurel Park.

Toupie could wind up overlooked in the wagering partly because, two starts back, she finished second in the 5 1/2-furlong Mamzelle S. at Churchill Downs against #5 Twirling Queen (8-1). But Toupie was beaten only three-quarters of a length while finishing ahead of next-out Churchill allowance winner #9 Cloudwalker (6-1), and that effort marked Toupie’s first start of the season. She moved forward nicely in the Stormy Blues and has every chance to vie for victory while making her third start of 2024 in the Coronation Cup.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $1,516 Pick 6 carryover (6:00 p.m. ET)

It didn’t take long for Colonial Downs to generate a carryover. The second day of the meet brings a non-jackpot $1,516 prize pool in the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, which carries a modest 15% takeout rate.

Handicapping the sequence in advance is difficult because there’s rain in the forecast for Friday, and there’s a chance the grass races will be transferred to dirt. That’s too bad, because the Pick 6 sequence is comprised exclusively of grass races with large fields. Even if the races stay on turf, we’ll likely get a rain-softened course that could complicate picking winners.

We’ve already highlighted #4 Candycrumbs (4-1) as a horse worth backing regardless of surface in Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6. Now we’ll give a shot-out to #12 Daisy My Name (7-2) as a filly to support in Race 7, provided the 5 1/2-furlong grass dash is rained off the turf.

Race 7 is a maiden special weight for Virginia-restricted fillies and mares, which ought to suit Daisy My Name. She ran well when debuting in a non-state-restricted $45,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Pimlico 14 months ago, tracking the pace and taking command before flattening out to finish second by one length. The winner, Our Liberty Belle, came back to win her next two starts in a row.

Daisy My Name hasn’t started since, but trainer W. Robert Bailes wins at a respectable 14% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and Daisy My Name enters off a bullet half-mile workout in :47 1/5 at Laurel Park last week. Even off the long break, she looks ready to fire a competitive shot.

Good luck!