Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Stakes double at Penn National

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 30 at Colonial Downs and Penn National, including horses to play in Colonial’s $607 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Friday at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:42 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Mary Lightner has compiled an excellent 9-4-2-0 (44%) record saddling experienced juveniles on turf at Colonial Downs.

This angle applies to #5 Nervana (7-2). The son of Grade 1-winning sprinter Win Win Win finished fifth when debuting in a May 11 maiden special weight sprinting five furlongs on Tapeta at Gulfstream Park, a race from which the runner-up and third-place finisher both returned to post next-out victories.

Lightner wins at a 44% rate with horses racing on grass for the first time and has gone 4-for-8 (50%) at Colonial Downs this meet, so Nervana looms as a compelling win choice in his second start.

Selections

• #5 Nervana (7-2)
• #9 Freddy Boy (9-2)
• #8 Grey Shadow (6-1)

Wagers

• $35 to win on #5 Nervana

Penn National: Race 3: Lebanon Valley S. (five furlongs on turf, 6:43 p.m. ET)

#4 Anaita (5-2) has gone 4-for-4 on turf, with all of those victories coming since June. Along the way she’s shown remarkable versatility in terms of running style, winning on the lead, from midfield, and from far off the pace.

But Anaita is facing a formidable challenger in #6 Organized Chaos (3-1). Although she’s 0-for-3 on grass, Organized Chaos has earned higher Brisnet Speed ratings than Anaita, including a strong 98 when second in the five-furlong Power by Far S. over the Parx Racing turf course two months ago.

Let’s box Anaita and Organized Chaos in an exacta, then play them together to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Organized Chaos (3-1)
• #4 Anaita (5-2)
• #1 Back Forty (6-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: box 4,6 ($20)
• $10 Double: 4,6 with 4 ($20)
  Total: $40

Penn National: Race 4: Don’t Close Your Eyes S. (five furlongs on turf, 7:12 p.m. ET)

#4 Jean Valjean (9-5) is 2-for-2 on turf. On June 19, she dueled through blazing splits of :21.14 and :43.04 on her way to dominating a five-furlong $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Penn National. On July 19, she carved out even more incredible fractions of :21.61 and :42.95 to win a 5 1/2-furlong $55,000-$44,000 allowance optional claimer at Laurel Park.

That phenomenal speed should make Jean Valjean tough to catch in her stakes debut. Let’s single her to conclude our double wager and bet her to win for good measure.

Selections

• #4 Jean Valjean (9-5)
• #7 Psychedelic Shack (5-2)
• #5 Braditude (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Jean Valjean

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $607 Pick 6 carryover (6:12 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s $607 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs, you’ll have to decipher a massively difficult sequence.

The six races that compromise the $1 “Old Dominion 6” have drawn 73 horses (averaging about 12.2 per race) before scratches, which adds up to a staggering 3,144,960 possible outcomes. Even if you remove five also-eligible entrants from consideration, there are still 2,073,600 possible Pick 6 outcomes.

We can slice those numbers down considerably by singling the above-mentioned #5 Nervana (7-2) in Race 5. As we outlined previously, trainer Mary Lightner excels with horses like Nervana, and the fact Nervana is dropping in class cements the lightly raced juvenile as a viable Pick 6 single.

That’s good news, because the rest of the races are tough to handicap. Some bettors might be drawn to #7 B Determined (3-1) in Race 8 as a possible single, since his last two Brisnet Speed ratings (85 and 80) are excellent compared to recent numbers posted by his rivals. Only two of the other 12 entrants have posted an 80+ Brisnet Speed rating in their last two starts apiece, and none have done so twice.

But does that mean B Determined is unbeatable? Not necessarily. Race 8 is a $12,500 claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, and while B Determined is a decent turf sprinter, his record over 5 1/2 furlongs stands at a modest 2-for-11. Last time out he closed to finish second in a $10,000 starter allowance sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Colonial Downs lawn, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by gate-to-wire winner Boat’s a Rockin.

There isn’t a crazy amount of speed entered in Race 8, so there’s a good chance B Determined will fall too far behind a modest pace and fail to reel in the leader(s), settling for second or third place. Rivals with more tactical speed, such as #12 Valiant Vinny (6-1) or #1 Ragtime Blues (15-1), may have a path to surprise against B Determined.

Valiant Vinny in particular is appealing; three starts back (in his final start of 2023), he set the pace on his way to second place in a $12,500 starter optional claimer sprinting six furlongs on turf at Laurel Park, for which he earned an 89 Brisnet Speed rating. Valiant Vinny is absolutely worth including in the Pick 6, as is Ragtime Blues.

Good luck!