Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Sunset Glory can upset stakes debut

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 16, at Saratoga, Colonial Downs, and Del Mar, including a horse to single in Colonial’s $9,612 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Colonial Downs Friday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Friday at Colonial Downs to win your share of a $2,500 prize pool.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 7: maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:23 p.m. ET)

#10 Doomed (10-1) is an unraced two-year-old trained by Jorge Abreu, a 16% winner with first-time starters. Since 2019, Abreu has compiled a strong 8-2-3-0 (25%) record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga.

Doomed prepped for his first start with a half-mile workout over the Saratoga training track turf course. As a son of Grade 1-winning sprinter Volatile, Doomed has speed in his pedigree and looks capable of outrunning his 10-1 morning line odds. A win bet is in order, and we’ll also play an exacta using #7 Pay the Juice (9-5) for second place.

Selections

• #10 Doomed (10-1)
• #7 Pay the Juice (9-5)
• #5 Son of Honor (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Doomed
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 7
  Total: $25

Colonial Downs: Race 1: maiden special weight (one mile on dirt, 4:40 p.m. ET)

#7 Fly Commander (7-2) posted a field-best 72 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in a five-furlong maiden special weight on Aug. 1 at Colonial Downs.

From a pedigree perspective, Fly Commander is bred to shine while stretching out over one mile. His sire, Higher Power, won the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic (G1). His dam, One for You, has foaled one-mile Arizona Oaks winner Una Palabra, one-mile Jim Beam S. runner-up Somewhere With You, 1 1/16-mile English Channel S. third-place finisher Kartano, one-mile Irish Day H. third-place finisher For You My Heart, and one-mile Longacres Mile H. (G3) third-place finisher Dedicated to You.

Let’s place a win bet on Fly Commander.

Selections

• #7 Fly Commander (7-2)
• #5 Thrilla (3-1)
• #6 Time for Restraint (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Fly Commander

Del Mar: Race 7: CTT and TOC S. (1 3/8 miles on turf, 9:02 p.m. ET)

#2 Linda’s Gift (4-5) is the leading long-distance grass mare in California. Since last fall, she’s won the Red Carpet (G3), Santa Ana (G3), Astra S., and Possibly Perfect S. over distances from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles.

However, Linda’s Gift is facing an interesting newcomer in the CTT and TOC. 

#1 Sunset Glory (5-1) has gone 2-for-2 since returning from an 18-month layoff during the spring. She overcame traffic to rally and win a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita, then swept to a decisive 3 1/4-length win in a 1 1/16-mile $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar.

Sunset Glory finished quickly in both those races and may appreciate stretching out over 1 3/8 miles for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Umberto Rispoli and Michael McCarthy. Let’s take a shot betting Sunset Glory over Linda’s Gift in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Sunset Glory (5-1)
• #2 Linda’s Gift (4-5)
• #8 Musical Rhapsody (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 2

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $9,612 Pick 6 carryover (10:26 p.m. ET)

There are plenty of reasons to play the “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 on Friday at Colonial Downs.

First, the $1 wager features a modest 15% takeout rate. Second, there’s a non-jackpot $9,612 carryover up for grabs. Third, the six races have drawn a total of 65 horses (averaging about 10.8 per race), so there are 1,451,520 possible outcomes and any winning ticket ought to pay handsomely.

Fourth — and this is a big one — we can simplify the ticket construction process by singling #6 As Catch Can (1-1) in race 7, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf. Eight horses have entered, but As Catch Can looms as a short-priced standout worth building Pick 6 tickets around.

As Catch Can didn’t show much when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Aqueduct, finishing a distant fourth in a five-horse field. But she improved dramatically when switching to turf and stretching out in distance for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga last month. After settling as many as seven lengths behind a slow pace, the daughter of Mo Town rallied strongly to finish third by one length, earning a 70 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par-winning number (69) for Friday’s conditions.

The competition should be a bit easier at Colonial Downs, setting the stage for As Catch Can to deliver victory for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who wins at a 25% rate with shippers. 

It helps that As Catch Can is slated to be ridden by jockey Vincent Cheminaud, who has gone 2-for-6 (33%) at Colonial Downs this meet. Over the past two months, Cheminaud and Thomas have won at a 25% rate teaming up together.

Bettors with large budgets might want to include the unraced Godolphin homebred #1 Rush Week (6-1) as backup, just in case the beautifully bred daughter of Into Mischief turns out to be a good one for red-hot trainer Michael Stidham. But that’s not a certainty, so the established and compelling form of As Catch Can makes her a worthy single for budget-conscious bettors.

Good luck!