Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Triple Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, March 8 at Sunland Park, Turfway Park, and Charles Town, along with horses to play in carryovers at Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Turfway Park 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win bets at Turfway Park every Friday in March.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk during the month of March.
• 10x Points at Fraser Downs: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fraser Downs on Thursdays and Fridays in March.
• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill Gardens or Royal Randwick in Australia. Today’s track is Royal Randwick.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Sunland Park: Race 9: Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial H. (1 1/16 miles, 5:54 p.m. ET)

#5 I’magambler (5-2) has rattled off four consecutive victories, including two at Sunland Park. On Feb. 18, he pressed the pace in a one-mile Sunland allowance before taking over to dominate by 6 3/4 lengths.

I’magambler’s last three Brisnet Speed ratings are 90, 86, and 87, stamping him as the horse to beat even while stepping up in class for the Albert and Henry Dominguez Memorial. It helps that he has jockey Francisco Amparan and trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral Jr. in his corner; they’ve teamed up to win at a 39% rate together over the last two months.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 I’magambler (5-2)
• #8 Bodie Got Gold (12-1)
• #4 One Mark (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 I’magambler

Turfway Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

Some bettors might hesitate to back the first-time starter #10 Friar Newton (8-1) since trainer Paulo Lobo wins at only a 6% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther. But Lobo’s 28-10-4-1 (36%) record saddling first-time starters at Turfway since 2022 includes a respectable 5-1-1-1 (20%) tally with three-year-olds debuting in routes, an angle that applies to Friar Newton.

Friar Newton has put together a long string of workouts in preparation for his debut and will be ridden by hot jockey Luan Machado, a 27% winner teaming up with Lobo over the past two months. There are enough positives in Friar Newton’s corner to make his 8-1 morning line odds appealing.

We’ll place a win bet on Friar Newton.

Selections

• #10 Friar Newton (8-1)
• #5 Anthem King (9-5)
• #7 Army Officer (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Friar Newton

Charles Town: Race 8: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs, 10:32 p.m. ET)

#1 Juba’s Yankee One (5-1) has vied for the lead in each of his last three starts over this track, distance, and class level. He cracked the trifecta in two of them and finished a troubled sixth (placed fifth via disqualification) in the other.

Juba’s Yankee One broke from middle post positions in those three contests. Now he’s set to start from post 1, a benefit since rail-drawn runners have won 22% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town since Jan. 3. Throw in the fact pacesetters have won 60% of races over this track and distance, and Juba’s Yankee One has a clear path to victory: break from the rail, get out in front, and never look back.

We’ll bet Juba’s Yankee One to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #1 Juba’s Yankee One (5-1)
• #7 Just Murphy (9-5)
• #6 Lovetheband (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Juba’s Yankee One

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $1,214 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race on Wednesday at Tampa Bay Downs, which means the Friday card features a $1,214 carryover.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 2, an $8,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 40 yards on dirt. #3 Child Proof (2-1) looks like a deserving favorite in her first start since being claimed by trainer Rohan Crichton, a 28% winner with new claiming acquisitions. The four-year-old filly has won three straight $8,000 and $6,250 claimers over this track and distance, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 77, 77, and 76.

We recommend keying Child Proof on top in the Super High 5. Underneath, emphasize #2 Perfectly Golden (5-2), runner-up in her last two starts racing one mile and 40 yards at Tampa. In one of those defeats, she finished only 1 1/2 lengths behind Child Proof.

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,735 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

A 27-1 upset in the opening leg of Thursday’s Pick 6 sequence at Fair Grounds helped ensure that the $1 wager went unsolved for the third racing day in a row. As a result, there’s a triple carryover worth $5,735 available to chase on Friday.

One of the most straightforward Pick 6 legs to handicap is Race 6, a maiden special weight for Louisiana-bred three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #2 Chad’s Flashy Ways (9-2), runner-up twice against Louisiana-bred $20,000 maiden claiming competition at Fair Grounds, has the Brisnet Speed ratings to factor even while stepping up in class. #4 Bobby Two Shot’s (5-1) has posted similar numbers against maiden special weight competition. We prefer these two over #5 Garfish (7-2), runner-up in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight at Delta Downs last month, and expect one or the other to prevail.

Race 7, a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for three-year-old fillies racing about 1 1/16 miles on turf, looks a bit trickier. On one hand, the race features a logical favorite in the form over #8 Tempting Lady (3-1), runner-up in a maiden special weight over this course, distance, and class level on Feb. 9. But on the other hand, Tempting Lady is 0-for-7 lifetime and could be vulnerable against the first-time starter #3 Capo Donna (12-1) or dirt runners trying turf for the first time, #2 Greyhound Station (9-2) and #6 When I Look At You (4-1). Spreading deep might be the best strategy.

Good luck!