Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway double-digit longshots

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Dec. 6 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including double-digit longshots to play in Turfway’s $3,535 Super High 5 carryover.

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• Oaklawn Park 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Oaklawn Park to receive a 25% boost (up to $25 per day) on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Oaklawn.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning trifecta wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday, Thursday, and Friday through January, excluding Dec. 26.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (about 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Tensas Camp Road (5-1) showed some potential in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course last month, closing from midfield against a slow pace to finish fourth.

Tensas Camp Road is adding Lasix for his Fair Grounds debut, opening the door for improvement while dropping in class to the $30,000 maiden claiming level. Let’s try a win bet on this chestnut colt.

Selections

• #5 Tensas Camp Road (5-1)
• #7 Infinite Luck (4-1)
• #6 Porches (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Tensas Camp Road

Fair Grounds: Race 8: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Water Tester (6-1) has shown tactical speed in all four of his dirt starts. Three were maiden special weights and one was a $32,000 maiden claimer.

Descending to the $10,000 level may allow Water Tester to secure an easy lead and never look back. If his 6-1 morning line odds hold up, a large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #5 Water Tester (6-1)
• #3 Box of Candy (4-1)
• #4 Beach Trippin (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Water Tester

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#9 Final Gambit (8-5) ran well when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf course. In a race that featured quick closing fractions, Final Gambit closed ground from 11th position to finish third by 3 1/4 lengths.

That effort yielded an 81 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Friday’s conditions. High-percentage trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 30% rate with horses running long for the second time, so let’s count on Final Gambit to take home top honors over #3 Reach (5-2).

Selections

• #9 Final Gambit (8-5)
• #3 Reach (5-2)
• #8 Spinback (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Final Gambit
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $3,535 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

Two days into the Holiday Meet at Turfway Park, no one has assembled a winning Super High 5 ticket. That means the $1 wager features a double carryover worth $3,535 for Friday’s card.

So why has the Super High 5 proven inscrutable? It’s simple: too many major longshots have been finishing in the top five. Super High 5 betting is offered on the final race each day; on Wednesday, horses starting ate 40-1 and 33-1 cracked the top five, while on Thursday the top five finishers included 22-1, 33-1, and 11-1 longshots.

On Friday, Super High 5 betting is on the table in Race 9, a $15,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. Double-digit longshots abound in the entries, but which have the best chance to factor for top-five finishers? Here are three worth including on your tickets:

#1 Red Wine Lady (15-1): Red Wine Lady has shown decent form against tougher competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. On turf, she ran second in a five-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer. On dirt, she finished fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong $30,000 maiden claimer. Descending to the $15,000 level and switching to Tapeta can help Red Wine Lady factor at a price, especially since Horseshoe Indianapolis runners are performing well (often at nice prices) to start this Turfway meet.

#8 Redheadedstranger (12-1): Redheadedstranger is dropping in class after tiring from a pace-pressing position to finish sixth in a 6 1/2-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. She’s fared better on the easier Illinois circuit, cracking the trifecta in a bevy of maiden special weights this year. After last winter/spring, she cracked the trifecta in three straight $15,000 and $7,500 maiden claimers over the Turfway Park Tapeta track. Returning to Turfway for a $15,000 maiden claimer might be all Redheadedstranger needs to contend for a top-five finish.

#11 Temporarilyforever (10-1): Although Temporarilyforever has lost both of her starts by double-digit margins, those were maiden special weights sprinting six furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt. Who’s to say this three-year-old filly won’t improve dramatically while dropping in class and trying Tapeta? Her pedigree suggests she’ll get along fine over this surface; sire Creative Cause won the Best Pal (G2) and placed in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) on synthetic, while dam sire Street Cry sired Zenyatta, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and 10 other Grade 1 races on synthetic.

If one or more of these longshots finish in the top five, you’ll be well on your way to cashing a nice Super High 5 payoff. Good luck!