Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway Park Pick 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 23 at Turfway Park, along with horses to play in the $6,646 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races every Thursday-Sunday.
• Fraser Downs 25% Win Bonus: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning single-horse win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Feb. 8 through Feb. 29.
• 10x Points at Meadowlands: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Meadowlands on Fridays and Saturdays in February.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Turfway Park on any Friday in February to win your share of a $2,500 daily bonus jackpot.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

Two contenders have caught my eye in this maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds. #4 Midnight Ambition (9-2) rallied to finish fifth in his debut sprinting six furlongs against $50,000 maiden claiming competition at Churchill Downs last fall. Adding blinkers and Lasix while dropping in class and switching to Tapeta can put Midnight Ambition in the hunt for victory.

Meanwhile, #10 Drunken Sailor (5-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of Wesley Ward, a 35% winner with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Drunken Sailor’s sire, Midshipman, won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on synthetic, so there are plenty of reasons to believe Drunken Sailor can produce a competitive run on debut.

Let’s use Midnight Ambition and Drunken Sailor in equal strength to start a pair of Pick 3 wagers:

Selections

• #4 Midnight Ambition (9-2)
• #10 Drunken Sailor (5-1)
• #1 Du Monde (4-1)

Wagers

• $7 Pick 3: 4,10 with 5 with 6 ($14)
• $3 Pick 3: 4,10 with 2,3 with 6 ($12)
  Total: $26

Turfway Park: Race 7: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Mastery N Polished (9-2) has competed three times against $30,000 maiden claiming competition racing one mile at Turfway, most recently tracking the pace on Feb. 1 before weakening to finish fifth by five lengths.

That effort produced a 72 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Friday’s field. Trainer Karyn Wittek wins at a 22% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so descending into a $15,000 maiden claimer should put Mastery N Polished in the hunt for victory at a nice price.

A win bet is in order. We’ll also single Mastery N Polished to start a double wager and emphasize him over #2 Elm Street (4-1) and #3 Big Tap (7-2) in our Pick 3s.

Selections

• #5 Mastery N Polished (9-2)
• #2 Elm Street (4-1)
• #3 Big Tap (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Mastery N Polished
• $10 Double: 5 with 6
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 8: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Suncroft (1-1) was terrific when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway two months ago, leading all the way to dominate by 8 1/2 lengths with a strong 94 Brisnet Speed rating. The Juddmonte homebred looks like a possible stakes horse in the making and should be tough to beat while tackling a $25,000 allowance optional claimer.

We won’t get too creative here—we’ll single Suncroft to conclude our double and Pick 3 wagers, then play him over red-hot longshot #5 Rivoli (30-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #6 Suncroft (1-1)
• #5 Rivoli (30-1)
• #11 Scoobie Quando (5-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: 6 with 5

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $6,646 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on both Sunday and Thursday, the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds has accumulated a double carryover worth $6,646.

Before scratches, the six-race sequence contains 62 horses (averaging about 10.3 per race) and 1,176,120 possible outcomes. The fields are competitive, with each featuring at least nine entries, and assembling a winning ticket won’t be easy.

That said, the first two legs of the Pick 6 appear relatively straightforward. Race 3, a $10,000 maiden claimer for Louisiana-bred three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt, features a logical favorite in the form of #1 Radiant Rebel (3-1). She’s finished third and fourth in her first two starts over this track and distance, both times while facing $20,000 maiden claiming competition. Those efforts yielded encouraging Brisnet Speed ratings of 61 and 67, with the latter number exceeding the par winning number (65) for Friday’s conditions.

The only other filly we’ll use is #8 Betonya (7-2). There isn’t an abundance of speed in this field, and Betonya has set or pressed the pace while finishing third in each of her last two starts against $10,000 maiden claiming competition at Fair Grounds. She hasn’t run as fast as Radiant Rebel on the Brisnet Speed rating scale (earning numbers of 59 and 60 in her last two starts), but if Betonya can beat Radiant Rebel to the early lead, she’ll have at least a shot at springing a mild upset.

Race 4 is a $12,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #3 Chrome Racer (7-2) looks like the one to beat after finishing fourth in a $20,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance on Feb. 4. That marked her first start since July, when she finished second in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Hawthorne.

Chrome Racer brings competitive Speed ratings to the table and is slated to be guided by apprentice jockey Yoel Navas, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. If Chrome Racer moves forward while dropping in class for her second start off the layoff, she’ll be tough to beat.

Some bettors might feel inclined to single Chrome Racer, but we recommend including the three-year-old filly #8 Miss Pearl Hart (5-1) as backup. She misfired in a $15,000 maiden claimer against fellow sophomores on Jan. 26 at Fair Grounds, fading to finish fifth after carving out a quick pace. But that race took place over a sloppy track.

Miss Pearl Hart had previously run third over a fast track in a $30,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds, earning a 70 Speed rating higher than the last three numbers Chrome Racer has posted. Miss Pearl Hart has set the pace in each of her last three starts, and if she makes the lead again on Friday, who’s to say she won’t get brave and turn back Chrome Racer’s homestretch rally?

Good luck!