Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Turfway’s $118,541 Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Dec. 15 at Turfway Park and Remington Park, including live longshots to use in Turfway’s $118,541 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any Friday from Dec. 1 through Dec. 29 to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Fraser Downs 15% Win Bonus: Earn a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning win wagers at Fraser Downs every Thursday and Friday from Nov. 16 through Dec. 15.
• Bayou & Bluegrass 10x Points: Receive 10x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park from Nov. 29 through Dec. 31.
• Los Alamitos $3,000 Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos from Dec. 15 through Dec. 17 to earn points and compete for your share of a $3,000 prize pool.

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 6: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Risky Choice (10-1) hasn’t been in the best form as of late, but he’s been competing against tougher competition on dirt, most notably rallying to finish fourth in a $10,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park back in June.

Last winter, Risky Choice hit the board in a couple of $15,000 maiden claimers running long over the Turfway Park Tapeta, so returning to Turfway (where he’s trained all year long) and dropping to the $5,000 maiden claiming level can trigger a competitive showing. At 10-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Risky Choice (10-1)
• #6 Generation (5-2)
• #7 Norbert (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Risky Choice

Remington Park: Race 9: Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial S. (one mile and 70 yards, 9:56 p.m. ET)

#8 Chrome Baby (5-1) has won three of his last four dirt starts while posting sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 96, 91, and 93. He enters the Jeffrey A. Hawk Memorial off back-to-back victories at Remington Park, most recently taking a one-mile allowance by two lengths.

Chrome Baby’s hot form and competitive Brisnet Speed ratings suggest he’s a viable win threat while stepping up in class for trainer Donnie K. Von Hemel, a 22% winner in ungraded stakes. Let’s bet Chrome Baby to win and single him to start a cold double wager.

Selections

• #8 Chrome Baby (5-1)
• #10 Pioneer of Medina (5-2)
• #3 Presidential (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Chrome Baby
• $10 Double: 8 with 8
  Total: $30

Remington Park: Race 10: Remington Springboard Mile S. (one mile, 10:28 p.m. ET)

#8 Otto the Conqueror (5-2) threw down a field-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating when wiring a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs last month by four lengths. His beaten rivals included next-out Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Honor Marie and subsequent Ed Brown S. winner Just Steel.

A repeat of that performance in the Remington Springboard Mile should make Otto the Conqueror tough to catch for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won this race half a dozen times. We’ll single Otto the Conqueror to conclude our double wager, bet him to win, and add an exacta using the Brad Cox trainees #1 Fidget (8-1) and #3 Gettysburg Address (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #8 Otto the Conqueror (5-2)
• #1 Fidget (8-1)
• #3 Gettysburg Address (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Otto the Conqueror
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 5: $118,541 Pick 5 carryover (7:55 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Turfway Park brings a massive non-jackpot carryover worth $118,541 in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

One of the most intriguing legs of the sequence is Race 7, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over six furlongs on Tapeta. The morning line favorite is #5 Outadore (5-2), and truth be told it’s hard to knock his form. The five-year-old gelding boasts a 3-2-1-0 record at Turfway highlighted by a gate-to-wire win in the 2021 Animal Kingdom S. sprinting six furlongs, and last time out he used his tactical speed to dominate a $50,000 claimer over the Kentucky Downs turf course by 4 1/2 lengths.

But here’s the thing: Outadore lacks an advantage from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. He posted a career-best 96 in that Kentucky Downs claimer, but several of his Friday rivals have run as fast or faster. That includes #6 Night Time (10-1) and #9 Surly Furious (15-1), two compelling longshots with career-best Brisnet Speed ratings of 99.

The 10-1 price on Night Time is surprising. He hasn’t missed the trifecta in five starts at Turfway Park, including narrow defeats in the Forego S. and Big Daddy S. last winter. Just as importantly, Night Time remains in strong form for high-percentage trainer William Morey and exits victory in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting seven furlongs over the Keeneland main track. That effort yielded a 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

As for Surly Furious, he misfired in a $150,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland last time out, finishing eighth. But two starts back over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, Surly Furious ran second (a nose ahead of Night Time) in a $50,000 handicap. And back in July, he took the six-furlong Karl Boyes S. over the Presque Isle Tapeta by 1 3/4 lengths.

Suffice to say, we recommend using both Night Time and Surly Furious in the Pick 5. Not only that, we suggest betting both to win and boxing them in an exacta for good measure:

Race 7

• $12 to win on #6 Night Time
• $8 to win on #9 Surly Furious
• $2 Exacta: box 6,9 ($4)
  Total: $24

Good luck!