Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Upset for the Graduation Stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Aug. 9, at Del Mar and Emerald Downs, including a horse to single in the $1,208 Pick 6 carryover at Emerald Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park Friday $5,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 on Friday at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $5,000 prize pool.
• Hoosier Park 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Hoosier Park on Friday.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Del Mar: Race 6: maiden special weight (five furlongs on turf, 9:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Uncle Evco (7-2) is a two-year-old son of talented sprinter Smiling Tiger, who sires a solid 13% winners from first-time turf starters. 

Uncle Evco has turned in some encouraging half-mile workouts for hot trainer Michael McCarthy (a 24% winner at Del Mar this meet) and looks ready for a competitive debut under Juan Hernandez, Del Mar’s leading jockey. Over the last two months, Hernandez and McCarthy have gone 3-for-9 (33%) teaming up together.

At 7-2, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Uncle Evco (7-2)
• #8 Johnson’s Magic (9-2)
• #5 Call Me Sir (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Uncle Evco

Del Mar: Race 7: Graduation S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 10:01 p.m. ET)

#3 R Heisman (6-5) is the clear morning-line choice in this sprint for California-bred juveniles. Last time out he finished second against non-state-restricted competition in the 5 1/2-furlong Everett Nevin S. at Pleasanton.

But when R Heisman debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for California-breds at Santa Anita in May, he was beaten 5 3/4 lengths by #4 Bodacious (6-1), who led by a minimum of 3 1/2 lengths at every call on his way to earning a 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

Bodacious subsequently faded after setting a quick pace in the non-state-restricted Bashford Manor S. at Churchill Downs, finishing sixth in a 12-horse field, but returning to the California-bred ranks at Del Mar could trigger a rebound. 

His 6-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so let’s try betting Bodacious to win and keying him over R Heisman in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Bodacious (6-1)
• #3 R Heisman (6-5)
• #7 I’m a Bad Boy (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Bodacious
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Emerald Downs: Race 2: $25,000 maiden claiming (five furlongs on dirt, 10:26 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #4 Moonlight Grey (5-1) has hot connections in her corner. Trainer Frank Lucarelli has gone 19-for-78 (24%) at Emerald Downs this meet, while jockey Isaias Enriquez has gone 17-for-84 (20%). Teaming up together over the last two months, they’ve gone 8-for-38 (21%).

Lucarelli’s win percentage with first-time starters has been 12% over the last few years, a modest number that may be the reason why Moonlight Grey is 5-1 on the morning line. But Lucarelli’s win rate improves to 14% with juveniles debuting on dirt at Emerald Downs since 2021, so we’re willing to take a shot betting Moonlight Grey to win.

Selections

• #4 Moonlight Grey (5-1)
• #8 Shesayshello (3-1)
• #7 Rockyscents (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Moonlight Grey

Carryover Watch

Emerald Downs: Race 2: $1,208 Pick 6 carryover (10:26 p.m. ET)

Have you ever played the 50-cent Pick 6 at Emerald Downs? It’s an appealing wager on many levels. Not only is the minimum bet amount half of the usual $1 for non-jackpot wagers, it also carries an incredibly low 8% takeout rate that pays out a greater percentage of the pool to bettors.

So why not give the bet a try? Friday is a great day to do so since the Pick 6 currently features a $1,208 carryover. And if you only select five of six winners, you’ll receive a consolation payoff.

To get you started assembling tickets, we’ll recommend a trustworthy single to build tickets around. Our choice is #1 Simply Gracious (5-2), the morning-line favorite to win race 4, a $15,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is six furlongs on dirt.

Simply Gracious brings compelling form lines to the table. Her last four starts have come at Emerald Downs, and all have yielded respectable showings. 

On May 11, she ran third in a $25,000 maiden claimer. On June 1, she smashed a $10,000 maiden claimer by 5 1/4 lengths. On June 30, she set the pace in a $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two races before weakening to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths. On July 19, she finished fifth (beaten only two lengths) in a $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

These efforts yielded consistent Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 75, 72, and 73, all of which are higher than or equal to the par winning number (72) for Friday’s conditions. The numbers also stack up strongly against Friday’s field — Simply Gracious is facing seven rivals, and none of them have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 69 in their last two starts apiece.

Simply Gracious regularly shows tactical speed and should be able to work out a nice trip while breaking from the rail under jockey Luis Reyes, a 19% winner at Emerald Downs who ranks among the top five riders at the current meet. For all these reasons, we rank Simply Gracious as a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!