Grade 1 Arlington Million trends and field analysis

The prestigious Grade 1 Arlington Million will run at Colonial Downs on Sunday, Aug. 11, as part of a 12-race card that features the Beverly D. S. (G2), a Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In challenge series event for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) in November.

Debuting in 1981 at Arlington Park in Illinois, the Arlington Million was the first Thoroughbred race to offer a $1 million purse and has been contested over the distance of 1 1/4 miles on the turf, with the exception of 2022, when Churchill Downs hosted the fixture and shortened it to 1 1/8 miles. In 2023, the Million moved to Colonial Downs and returned to 1 1/4 miles.

The 41st running of the Arlington Million will draw a field of six and present both Jamie Spencer and William Buick the chance to score a record-tying second win as a rider in the race. Previous two-time-winning jockeys include Laffit Pincay Jr. (1982, 1991), Cash Asmussen (1988, 1992), Jose Santos (1989, 1993), Gary Stevens (1990, 1997), Jerry Bailey (2000, 2002), Ramon Dominguez (2009, 2012), Irad Ortiz Jr. (2018, 2019), and Florent Geroux (2015, 2023).

The winningest trainer is Chad Brown, with four victories in 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2019. He will not saddle a runner in the 2024 edition, and no trainer entered in this year’s renewal has previously won the Million before.

Ten-year trends in the Arlington Million

Brown is the only repeat-winning trainer over the last decade (the event was not held in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic). Geroux and Ortiz are the only jockeys to score multiple victories dating back to 2013 as well.

Only one post-time favorite has won in the last 10 runnings – 0.5-1 choice Bricks and Mortar in 2019 — and seven of the last 10 winners went off at odds of 6-1 or shorter. 

The longest shot to prevail during that span was 27.1-1 upsetter Two Emmys in 2021 (when the race was briefly named the Mr. D S.), followed by 11.5-1 choice Hardest Core in 2014, and 8.4-1 Real Solution, who was elevated to first in 2013 over 6.6-1 The Apache after the latter was disqualified and placed second because of interference in the stretch.

In the 2023 Million, multiple graded stakes winner Set Piece clocked a course-record time of 1:58.19.

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Arlington Million trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Arlington Million S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 11, Arlington Million (G1), 1 1/4 miles, 3-year-olds and up (6:40 p.m. ET)

#1 Integration (5-2): The four-year-old by Quality Road got off to a hot start to his career last season, when he won on debut by 6 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Colonial’s turf, then reeled off two more victories in the Virginia Derby (G3) and Hill Prince (G2). 

He began his four-year-old career with a start in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and finished fifth to star filly Warm Heart as the 0.80-1 favorite. He then cut back in distance in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and was third to Master of The Seas over yielding turf. In May, he came home fourth to Program Trading in the Turf Classic (G1) over a course labeled good at Churchill. His return to Colonial in July was fortuitous, as he dominated by 6 1/2 lengths over just two rivals in the Million Preview S. 

He’ll go for a fourth win from as many starts at Colonial today and will retain the services of Kendrick Carmouche, who’s won all three mounts he’s had on Integration. The rail post is also favorable — it’s winning at a 19% clip — and trainer Shug McGaughey is 7-2-0-1 at Colonial this meet.

#2 Ancient Rome (3-1): The European shipper for Charlie Hills was last seen finishing a half-length second in a Group 2 at Ascot. He’ll stretch back out to 1 1/4 miles, a distance from which he’s 1-for-3, and he’ll regain rider Jamie Spencer. 

Ancient Rome has one start in the U.S., which resulted in a half-length win over 11 rivals in the one-mile Mint Millions (G3) at Kentucky Downs last September. He’s 0-for-2 this season, but his first start of the campaign came off a nearly nine-month layoff, and he showed improvement last out. 

#3 Sugoi (8-1): The seven-year-old gelding has been sharp this season, with a 5-4-1-0 record. He transferred to the barn of Mike Maker after his win in a 1 1/16-mile claimer on Keeneland’s main track in April three back. Sugoi returned to turf in his next start, which he won the 1 1/2-mile Louisville (G3) in gate-to-wire fashion while setting slow fractions as the lone speed in the race. 

In his second start in Maker’s barn, he was bested late by half a length in the 1 3/8-mile Chorleywood Overnight S. at Churchill. Julien Leparoux will retain the mount, but Sugoi is unlikely to have his way on the front end here with three early speed types to his outside.

#4 Nations Pride (8-5): The morning-line favorite for Charlie Appleby is 0-for-2 since returning to the U.S., with a third to stablemate Silver Knott in the 1 3/8-mile Man O’ War (G2) and a runner-up to another Appleby pupil, Measured Time, in the Manhattan (G1). He has no stablemates to worry about here today, and he stepped forward last out with a 102 Brisnet Speed figure in his second start off the layoff. 

William Buick is back on the mount and won three of his last six starts with Nations Pride. Appleby is a 43% winner with shippers and a 39% winner in graded stakes. He also strikes at a 26% clip with horses coming off 46-90 days of rest.

#5 Highland Chief (12-1): A seven-year-old Irish-bred, Highland Chief is the longest shot among the field and has not won since the 1 1/2-mile Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland five starts back. The Graham Motion trainee is returning to a distance from which he has a win and a fourth from two lifetime starts, and he’ll regain John Velazquez, who guided him in the Sycamore. 

He’ll look to track the early pace from the start, but Highland Chief’s speed figures were in the 80s in his last two, which pales in comparison to the recent figures posted by today’s rivals.

#6 Talk of the Nation (6-1): The lone true early pacesetter in the field, this four-year-old by Quality Road has placed in all three starts since joining Todd Pletcher’s barn, with his largest margin of defeat in that span just a length in the one-mile Poker (G3) two back. 

His Brisnet Speed figures range from 93 to 97 in those three starts, and he will need more against the top contenders in this field. Jose Ortiz, a 19% winner on turf, will get the mount. Pletcher is a 23% winner with shippers and an 18% winner in graded stakes.