Grade 1 Travers Stakes trends and field analysis

One of the oldest stakes races for sophomores in the U.S., the 155th running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga will play a large part in determining the champion of a wide-open three-year-old division in 2024.

Among the field is Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Sierra Leone, Belmont (G1) winner Dornoch, recent Jim Dandy (G2) victor Fierceness, and Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Thorpedo Anna, who will attempt to become just the eighth filly to win the Midsummer Derby.

Inaugurated in 1864, the race is named after William R. Travers, the first president of Saratoga who won the first running of the event with a horse named Kentucky. The following year, filly Maiden triumphed in the Travers, and two more females followed suit with victories in 1867 (Ruthless) and 1868 (The Banshee). Ruthless also won the inaugural running of the Belmont S. earlier that summer.

While seven fillies have won the Travers over the course of its history, none has reached the winner’s circle since Lady Rotha in 1915. Thorpedo Anna will attempt to break a 109-year drought and will look to earn trainer Kenny McPeek his second Travers win. His first came in 2012 with Golden Ticket, who finished in a dead heat with co-winner Alpha.

The winningest trainer of the Travers is Bert Mulholland, who won five times (1939, 1950, 1951, 1962, and 1963). Javier Castellano has the most victories by a jockey, with seven (2006, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2023).

James Rowe Sr. won the Travers both as a trainer and a jockey. Rowe triumphed in 1872 aboard Joe Daniels, and he conditioned three winners — Hindoo in 1881, Barnes in 1883, and Hilarious in 1909. Rowe’s son, James Rowe Jr., trained Travers winners Beacon Hill in 1929 and Twenty Grand in 1931.

The Travers has been run every year since 1868, with the exceptions in 1896, 1898, 1899, 1900, 1911, and 1912. The 1 1/4-mile distance became the permanent length of the race in 1904.

Ten-year trends in Travers

Bob Baffert is the only trainer to record multiple victories over the last decade of the Travers, with two of his three titles coming in 2016 with Arrogate — who set the speed record at 1:59.36 — and 2017 with West Coast. Mike Smith was aboard both winners. Aside from Smith, Castellano is the only other jockey to win the Travers multiple times since 2014, with four of his seven victories occurring in that span.

Dating back to 2014, three post-time favorites have won the Travers: Tiz the Law at 0.50-1 in 2020, Essential Quality at 0.45-1 in 2021, and Epicenter at even money in 2022.

The longest shot of the last decade to reach the winner’s circle is 19.50-1 winner V. E. Day, who beat 2.65-1 choice Wicked Strong by a nose. The following year, 16-1 Keen Ice defeated Triple Crown winner American Pharoah by three-quarters of a length.

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Travers trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Travers horse-by-horse analysis

Race 13, Travers S. (G1), 1 1/4 miles, three-year-olds (6:10 p.m. ET)

#1 Thorpedo Anna (3-1) – The Kentucky Oaks winner has dominated her division, going for 4-for-4 this season, including three straight Grade 1 victories by a combined 14 3/4 lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek is a 13% winner with horses that won their last race, and he's 25-3-4-3 to start the Saratoga meet. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. will retain the mount on the Fast Anna filly, who's 6-for-7 lifetime. Thorpedo Anna posted a bullet five-furlong workout at Saratoga on Aug. 17, and she'll look for the early lead breaking from the rail.

#2 Sierra Leone (7-2) – The $2.3 million yearling purchase was sent off as the favorite in four of his last five starts, but he's riding a three-race losing streak and will look to rebound off a one-length second to Fierceness in the Jim Dandy (G2). The late closer will keep Flavien Prat in the saddle, who's winning at a 19% clip at Saratoga. Trainer Chad Brown is a 22% winner this meet, and he strikes 29% of the time with beaten favorites. Sierra Leone is 0-for-2 at 1 1/4 miles, but he was beaten by just a nose three back in the Kentucky Derby.

#3 Unmatched Wisdom (8-1) – The Cairo Prince colt is unbeaten from three starts and won his stakes debut last out in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin S. at Saratoga. The stablemate of Sierra Leone has early speed and improved his Brisnet Speed figures with each start, topping out at a 99 last out. He'll pick up Irad Ortiz Jr., a 21% winner this meet. 

#4 Corporate Power (15-1) – The Curlin colt is 5-2-2-0 lifetime, with a narrow win in the Sir Barton S. over a muddy Pimlico track two back and a length second to Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin S. last out. The Shug McGaughey pupil may improve second start off the layoff, and he'll keep regular rider Javier Castellano. Corporate Power put in a bullet work Aug. 16 at Saratoga, and his 98 Brisnet Speed rating last out is a career best, but it pales in comparison to the recent Speed figures of other rivals in Saturday's field.

#5 Batten Down (20-1) – The Tapit colt took four tries to break his maiden and succeeded on the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles in a $120,000 maiden special weight at Churchill on April 30. In his next start, he jumped up to graded stakes competition and won the 1 1/8-mile Ohio Derby (G3), then finished third by 6 3/4 lengths to Fierceness in the Jim Dandy. Trainer Bill Mott is an 18% winner at Saratoga, and Junior Alvarado is a 17% winner paired with Mott over the last two months. Batten Down has put in a pair of sharp workouts since his Jim Dandy placing and is one of a handful who will go for the early lead out of the gate.

#6 Honor Marie (20-1) – The late closer is on a four-loss streak since winning the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a two-year-old and will add blinkers for the first time in his third straight start at 10 furlongs. Last out, he came home fourth by 5 1/2 lengths to Dornoch in the Belmont and will return off a more than two-month layoff for Whit Beckman, who's 0-for-12 to start the meet. Tyler Gaffalione will inherit the mount and is winning at a 19% clip at the Spa.

#7 Dornoch (5-2) – The morning-line favorite is on a two-win streak, with a half-length win in the Belmont and a 1 1/4-length victory in the Haskell (G1) in July. The Good Magic colt will break from just inside of another early speed type, Fierceness, and should get himself into a pace duel from the start. The three-year-old put in a sharp workout Aug. 17 and will retain regular rider Luis Saez. Trainer Danny Gargan is a 22% winner in graded stakes but 0-for-11 at the Spa this meet.

#8 Fierceness (3-1) – The City of Light colt continued his win-loss pattern with a one-length victory in the Jim Dandy (G2) off his 15th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He's wheeling back in less than a month and may improve second start off the layoff, but so far he's disappointed when returning off a win. Todd Pletcher is a 19% winner this meet and an 18% winner in graded stakes. John Velazquez will stay in the saddle and is 3-for-10 in the last week. Fierceness posted a sharp workout Aug. 17, and his 105 Brisnet Speed figure last out is the highest most-recent race speed rating among the field.