Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses trends and field analysis

The 67th running of the Bed o' Roses S. (G2) will take place Saturday and drew a fierce field of 10 fillies and mares, with a lukewarm morning line favorite in multiple stakes winner Flying Connection.

Named after two-time champion and Hall of Famer Bed o' Roses, the annual stakes event was first run in 1957 at Jamaica Race Course and remained at the track until 1959, when it moved to Aqueduct. Since 2010, the Bed o' Roses has been held at Belmont, but is scheduled as part of the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet, as the historic Elmont, New York, racetrack undergoes renovations.

Dating back to 2006, the Bed o' Roses has been raced at the sprint distance of seven furlongs but was primarily run at a mile over the span of 1960 to 2005. From 1957 to 1959 and 1977-78, the Bed o' Roses was a 1 1/16-mile event. It was also raced at a mile and 70 yards in 1984.

Allen Jerkens is the winningest Bed o' Roses trainer, with seven victories (1964, 1973, 1988, 1994, 1995, 1998, 2004), while Robbie Davis (1984, 1987, 1994) and Irad Ortiz Jr. (2014, 2018, 2023) are tied for most wins by a jockey.

#1 Apple Picker (15-1) — Connect filly won last out with an 88 Brisnet Speed figure in the six-furlong Skipat S. over a muddy Pimlico track and moves back up in class here for Brittany Russell, a 20% winner with horses that won their last race. The late closer will pick up John Velazquez, a 22% winner this meet, and will return to the track where she finished fourth to today’s race rival Shidabhuti in the Distaff S. (G3) two back. Four-year-old is 5-1-1-0 from today’s distance. She put in a sharp four-furlong workout at Laurel on June 9.

#2 Big Pond (4-1) — Four-year-old was beaten three-quarters of a length as the favorite in the 6 1/2-furlong Vagrancy (G3) last out and will re-oppose a couple of rivals from that start here. The filly will make her second start with trainer Bill Mott, a 17% winner with beaten favorites but 3-for-42 with horses making their second start after transferring to his barn, and Junior Alvarado will retain the mount. Alvarado is an 8% winner this meet but 14-4-1-3 over the last week. Big Pond has a win and a second from three career starts at today’s distance. She posted a 96 Brisnet figure last out in her runner-up effort.

#3 Accede (6-1) — One of two in the field for Chad Brown, the Into Mischief filly has built a two-win streak against allowance company and will move back up in class while coming off a 52-day layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. (17% winner this meet) will retain the mount. Brown is a 23% winner this meet and a 25% winner with shippers. Juddmonte homebred has a third in her lone try at seven furlongs, in the Eight Belles (G2) last May.

#4 Morning Matcha (12-1) — Late closer for Butch Reid also rides a two-win streak and will move back up to face graded stakes company after winning a pair of non-graded stakes. The five-year-old will return off a 54-day layoff and ships back to Aqueduct, where she’s 6-1-2-2 for her career. She also has three victories and a second from four starts at today’s distance. Regular rider Mychel Sanchez is aboard. Recent Speed figures (91, 91, 92) are slightly lower than some of today’s race rivals.

#5 Just Katherine (10-1) — Justify filly has been racing farther and was last seen finishing a five-length seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn in February. She’ll cut back in distance and return off a more than four-month layoff for Jose Jimenez, a 25% winner this meet but just an 8% winner with sprints. Manny Franco (22% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. Four-year-old has a win in lone start at seven furlongs back in March of 2023, when she broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park.

#6 Flying Connection (3-1) — Morning line favorite makes her first start for Rob Atras, a 33% winner at Belmont at the Big A. The Nyquist filly won gate to wire three back in the one-mile Harry Henson H. at Sunland Park, then finished a distant second to Adare Manor in the 1 1/16-mile Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn and was third to Vahva in the seven-furlong Derby City Distaff (G1) while trained by Todd Fincher. Atras is a 17% winner with horses making their first start with the trainer, and he’s an 11% winner in graded stakes. Ricardo Santana Jr. will pick up the mount. Flying Connection’s last-out 99 Brisnet figure is tied for the highest last race speed figure among the field.

#7 Hot Fudge (10-1) — Liam’s Map five-year-old is 3-for-4 from today’s distance and 9-6-0-2 at Aqueduct. The Linda Rice trainee was third last out to today’s race rival Leave No Trace in the Vagrancy. She has performed best recently in the mud, with victories in a pair of non-graded stakes in January and March on an off-track. Hot Fudge was beaten by Shidabhuti two back and has yet to win against graded stakes company. Eric Cancel (15% with sprints) will pick up the mount.

#8 Shidabhuti (6-1) — The second entry from Chad Brown’s barn, Shidabhuti was third last out in the one-mile Ruffian (G2) but won two back at today’s distance in the Distaff S. The Practical Joke filly is a horse for the course, with a 5-3-0-2 record at Aqueduct, and her 99 Brisnet figure last out is tied for the highest last race speed rating. Dylan Davis will retain the mount on the late runner. Brown is a 28% winner with horses making their third start off a layoff and a 33% winner going from a sprint to a route and back to a sprint.

#9 Leave No Trace (6-1) — Outwork four-year-old won the Vagrancy as a 9-1 longshot, beating Big Pond by three-quarters of a length. Her 97 Brisnet figure was a career-best and she's eligible to improve further second start off the layoff. Trainer Phil Serpe is a 20% winner with horses that won their last race and a 15% winner in graded stakes. His filly is also 3-2-0-1 at Aqueduct. Jose Lezcano will stay in the saddle. Bullet four-furlong workout June 7 at Saratoga.

#10 Beguine (12-1) — Gun Runner mare had the lead through the top of the stretch but weakened late to finish fourth by 3 1/2 lengths in the Vagrancy. The five-year-old is 0-for-2 at seven furlongs, and she's 0-for-4 at Aqueduct. Trevor McCarthy will pick up the mount and strikes at a 6% rate in sprints.