Grade 3 Holy Bull trends and field analysis

Gulfstream Park will host the 36th running of the Holy Bull S. (G3) on Saturday, a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race worth points on a 20-10-6-4-2 sliding scale to the top five finishers.

First run in 1990 as the Preview S. at 1 1/8 miles, the name of the event was later changed to honor 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull. The current distance of the Derby prep is 1 1/16 miles but has also previously been contested at a mile and 1 3/16 miles in addition to 1 1/8 miles.

Two winners of the Holy Bull have gone on to claim the garland of roses on the first Saturday in May — Go for Gin in 1994 and Barbaro in 2006. Funny Cide also won the Kentucky Derby after finishing fifth in the Holy Bull in 2003. 

There have also been three horses who finished second in the Run for the Roses after getting a start in the Gulfstream prep and two more who came home second. The most recent starter in the Holy Bull to place in the Kentucky Derby is Tiz the Law, who won the Florida prep race in 2020 before finishing second in the COVID-delayed Kentucky Derby later in September.

Ten-Year Trends in the Holy Bull (G3)

No trainer has won the Holy Bull multiple times in the last decade but in 2016 conditioner Kiaran McLaughlin celebrated his third victory in the race, tied for the most by a trainer with Nick Zito (1994, 1995, 2011). Zito's first win came with Go for Gin in 1994, when the eventual Derby winner set a stakes speed record for 1 1/16 miles at 1:41.62.

The only jockeys to have visited the Holy Bull winner's circle multiple times within the last decade are Junior Alvarado (Mohaymen, 2016; Rocket Can, 2023) and Jose Ortiz (Upstart, 2015; Greatest Honour, 2021). Jerry Bailey is the winningest jockey in the Holy Bull, with five victories (1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1998). 

Just two post-time favorites have won the Holy Bull dating back to 2015, with Mohaymen crossing the wire first by 3 1/2 lengths as the 0.30-1 favorite in 2016 and Tiz the Law prevailing by three lengths in 2020 as a 1.30-1 post-time choice. The longest shot to win in the last decade is 29.60-1 Harvey Wallbanger in 2019, followed by last year's winner Hades at 9.20-1.

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Holy Bull trends, let's examine the 2025 field.

2025 Holy Bull S. Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Race 11, Holy Bull S. (G3), 1 1/16 miles, 3yos (5:13 p.m. ET)

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#1 Kinetic Control (15-1) —  The Not This Time three-year-old took four tries to break his maiden, succeeding last out at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs on Nov. 22. The Albaugh Family Stables color bearer recorded a 78 Brisnet Speed rating in the 1 1/2-length triumph. His best Speed figures came in his first two career starts, when beaten to second both times racing seven furlongs (80 BRIS figure) and in his first attempt at 1 1/16 miles (89 BRIS figure). Trainer Dale Romans is a 10% winner with shippers, and he's winning at a 31% clip at Gulfstream this meet. Junior Alvarado will pick up the mount on the dark bay, who posted a sharp five-furlong workout at Gulfstream on Jan. 25 ahead of his stakes debut. 

#2 Ferocious (9-5) — The late runner by Flatter won on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight over a sloppy Saratoga track, then jumped up to Grade 1 competition and finished a half-length second to next-out winner Chancer McPatrick in the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1). Ferocious then finished a distant second to East Avenue in his first try at a route, the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Futurity (G1). Last out, the Gustavo Delgado trainee came home a 6 1/2-length fifth to Citizen Bull in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) while enduring traffic trouble. His last-out 99 BRIS figure is the highest last race speed rating and best dirt speed figure among the field. The dark bay colt will add blinkers for the first time here and will return off a more than three-month layoff. Javier Castellano will retain the mount and was aboard Ferocious for his maiden victory. 

#3 Tappan Street (3-1) — By Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare, the $1 million yearling purchase won on debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream on Dec. 28 and recorded an 89 BRIS figure with a 117 Class Rating while beating 11 rivals by 1 3/4 lengths. The Brad Cox pupil will now stretch out to a route in his second career start and posted a bullet five-furlong workout Jan. 19 in preparation for his stakes debut. Luis Saez will stay in the saddle and is winning at a 30% clip paired up with Cox over the last two months. Cox is also a 29% winner first time at a route and a 26% winner with horses coming off a maiden win.

#4 Guns Loaded (5-2) — The Gun Runner colt will attempt to earn his third straight victory after graduating at second asking in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill, then holding on to win the one-mile Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream last out. The Jose D'Angelo trainee has plenty of speed to get the early lead and will be guided by Irad Ortiz Jr., a 26% winner this meet.

#5 He's Not Joking (15-1) — By Practical Joke out of a Central Banker mare, He's Not Joking's pedigree may be best suited for shorter distances, but he's already proven himself at today's distance of 1 1/16 miles when dominating the Grey S. (G3) by four lengths at Woodbine last November. Trained by Josie Carroll, He's Not Joking made his first dirt start last out in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and finished a distant eighth after a bothered start. John Velazquez will inherit the mount and strikes at a 20% rate with routes.

#6 Burning Glory (8-1) — The late closer by Into Mischief graduated at third asking in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill on Dec. 1 with a career-best 88 BRIS figure. He'll move up in class for trainer Bill Mott, a 15% winner at Gulfstream, and posted a sharp four-furlong workout Jan. 25 at Payson Park. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount and is winning at an 18% clip this meet. Burning Glory has the pedigree to go long but will need to take a step forward to contend with the top competition in the field.

#7 Burnham Square (5-1) — The three-year-old gelding by Liam's Map dominated by nine lengths when breaking his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion at today's distance at Gulfstream in his third career start. The Ian Wilkes trainee recorded a 94 BRIS figure for the effort with a 118 Class Rating and will keep rider Edgard Zayas in the saddle. Burnham Square was beaten just three-quarters of a length in his second career start, also at 1 1/16 miles, when rallying late. He's unlikely to get the early lead but has the versatility to stalk the pacesetter and put in a late charge while breaking from the far outside.