Grade 3 Pucker Up S. trends and field analysis

The Grade 3 Pucker Up S. will offer up the richest purse among the 20 races slated for Kentucky Downs Preview Weekend at Ellis Park on Saturday and Sunday.

The 1 1/8-mile event for three-year-old fillies is worth $400,000 and serves as a local prep for the $1.6 million Dueling Grounds Oaks on Sept. 11 at Kentucky Downs.

First run in 1961 at Arlington Park in Chicago, the turf stakes was named after 1957 champion older female Pucker Up, winner in 16 of her 32 starts, including the 1957 Arlington Matron H. and Washington Park H.

In 2023, the Pucker Up made its debut at its new home of Ellis Park, where Eddie Kenneally trainee Safeen triumphed by a half-length over American Pharoah filly Bling, who will contest the 5 1/2-furlong Ladies Turf Sprint Preview on Saturday at Ellis.

Ten-year trends in Pucker Up S.

Dating back to 2012 (the race was not held in 2020 or 2022), Chad Brown has three victories, including back to back in 2019 and 2021 with Cafe Americano and Shantisara (IRE), while Irad Ortiz Jr. and Florent Geroux each own two wins apiece. Geroux also reached the winner’s circle in 2010 with Dade Babe and will have the mount on #1 Everland (8-1) in the 2024 edition.

Four post-time favorites have won the last 10 runnings of the Pucker Up, including the last three in 2019, 2021, and 2023. The longest shot to cross the wire first dating back to 2012 was 14-1 Mizz Money in 2015, followed by 12.2-1 Fault in 2017. Both horses prevailed by a narrow margin — a nose and a neck, respectively. 

Now that we've examined some of the recent Pucker Up S. trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Pucker Up S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 9, Pucker Up S. (G3), 1 1/8 miles, 3yo fillies (4:48 p.m. ET)

#1 Everland (8-1) — The Arrogate filly last won the 1 1/16-mile Bourbonette Oaks on Turfway’s all-weather, then raced on dirt for the first time in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1), where she finished a 12-length fifth over a sloppy track. 

The three-year-old then returned to turf in the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) and came home fourth to Saturday’s race rival Pin Up Betty before faltering to finish sixth in the one-mile Horseshoe Indianapolis H. on July 13. 

Trainer Eric Foster is 1-for-15 to start the Ellis meet and a 6% winner in turf starts. Everland will pick up hot jockey Florent Geroux, a 30% winner in this meet, but the late closer has never finished in the money in three starts on turf.

#2 Kalispera (15-1) — Another closer type, the Irish-bred filly is 0-for-9 on turf with a pair of runner-up finishes and three third-place efforts. 

Her lone win from 10 starts came in her U.S. debut at Gulfstream Park, where she got up to win by a neck in a one-mile, 70-yard maiden special weight on all-weather. 

Trainer Brian Lynch is an 11% winner in graded stakes and a 25% winner in this meet. James Graham will retain the mount and is 2-for-22 at Ellis.

#3 Waves of Mischief (9-2) — Making her fourth career start for Brendan Walsh, the Into Mischief filly won on debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland on April 18, then jumped to stakes company and finished a distant third in the one-mile Hilltop S. at Pimlico. 

Last out, the $575,000 two-year-old purchase added blinkers and tried all-weather in the Selene S. (G3) at Woodbine and led early before backing away on the rail in the upper stretch to come home last of seven. 

Walsh will remove the blinkers, and Luan Machado (33% when paired with Walsh the last two months) will pick up the mount.

#4 Hello Hollywood (5-1) — By Oscar Performance, the gray filly earned her second career win last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Ellis and will move back up in class here.

Another runner from the barn of Brian Lynch, she won at second asking in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream in February, then finished a length fourth in her first stakes attempt at the same track. 

She stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in a competitive allowance at Keeneland and was beaten to third by a neck in April, then faded to sixth in the 1 1/8-mile Regret two back in her lone graded stakes try.

Jose Ortiz, a 19% winner on turf, will regain the mount. Hello Hollywood’s last-out 86 Brisnet Speed rating is the second-best most recent speed figure among the field, and she posted a sharp five-furlong workout on July 27 at Churchill.

#5 She’s Fire (30-1) — A longshot for Kevin Rice, the Flameaway filly is 4-for-12 lifetime, with three of her victories coming on all-weather. 

She last raced on turf five starts back and was eighth in the six-furlong Stewart Manor S. at Aqueduct. 

Rice is a 6% winner in turf starts and 0-for-8 in graded stakes. Israel Rodriguez will retain the mount and has won his last two mounts on She’s Fire but on Presque Isle Downs’ Tapeta track.

#6 Pin Up Betty (9-5) — The morning-line favorite by Constitution was winless in her first seven starts but graduated in her second turf try three starts back when taking a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight by five lengths at Churchill Downs. 

The Mike Maker trainee then jumped up to graded stakes company and won the Regret by 1 1/2 lengths as a 6.65-1 post-time choice. Last out, she stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and was fourth. 

Jaime Torres (20% winner this meet) will pick up the mount and has two wins and a second from four starts paired up with Maker over the last 14 days.

#7 Mo Fox Givin (7-2) — In her first start for trainer Mark Casse, the gray filly will stretch out to 1 1/8 miles after finishing a neck second in the one-mile Tepin S. at Churchill while under the guidance of Ron Moquett. 

The Mo Town three-year-old has never tried 1 1/8 miles but owns a 10-2-3-2 record on the turf and will get Cristian Torres aboard. Her 89 Brisnet Speed rating earned in her Tepin placing is the highest last-race speed figure among the field, and she put in a solid workout at Churchill ahead of Saturday's start. 

Casse is a 33% winner at Ellis and a 12% winner with horses making their first start with him.

#8 Sanctify (30-1) — The Audible filly graduated in her seventh career start and first turf try when dominating by four lengths in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Churchill. She then switched back to dirt and came home seventh in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at the same track. 

Trainer Hutch Holsapple is a 22% winner in nine starts with horses switching from dirt to turf and an 18% winner with routes. Jareth Loveberry, a 19% winner at Ellis, will stay in the saddle.

#9 Mont Saint Michel (10-1) — By Wootton Bassett, the French-bred filly graduated at second asking in a one-mile maiden special weight at Woodbine, then finished fourth in a stakes when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles at Delaware Park. 

Trainer Brendan Walsh will add blinkers for the first time, and Alex Achard will regain the mount. He’s 0-for-20 to start the meet and a 4% winner on turf.

#10 Adrasteia (30-1) — The Speightster filly is still a maiden after eight starts and 0-for-3 on the turf. 

Declan Cannon is back in the saddle and just missed with the filly two back in a three-quarter-length third during a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill on June 15. 

Adrasteia's recent speed figures rank low compared to the rest of the field, and it’ll be tough for her to contend for minor awards in her first stakes start.