Grade 3 River City trends and field analysis

Churchill Downs' $300,000 River City S. (G3) is one of just three graded stakes scheduled in the U.S. on Saturday following a busy weekend of racing in Del Mar for the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

First run in 1978 at six furlongs on the dirt, the River City S. — then known as the River City Handicap — offered a purse of $25,000. It remained at the six-furlong sprint distance until 1982, when it extended to a mile and stayed at that length through 1986. 

In 1987, Churchill moved the River City to the turf and expanded the distance again to 1 1/16 miles. From 1994 on (with the exception of 2022), the race has been contested at 1 1/8 miles on the grass. In 1996, it earned Grade 3 status.

Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day has recorded the most victories in the River City, with six (1982, 1984, 1986, 1991, 1999, 2000). Nine trainers are tied with two wins apiece, including Bill Mott (1986, 1987), Brad Cox (2018, 2019), and Shug McGaughey (1984, 2023).

Ten-year trends in River City

Cox is the only trainer to achieve multiple victories in the last 10 renewals. (There was no running of the River City in 2020 and 2021.) 

Jockey Julien Leparoux has won three times dating back to 2014, and Florent Geroux visited the winner's circle back to back with Cox trainee Mr. Misunderstood in 2018 and 2019.

Only one post-time favorite has finished first in the last 10 editions dating back to 2012, but seven of the last 10 winners went off at odds of 5-1 or shorter. One notable exception was 46-1 longshot Potomac River in 2013. The year prior, 30-1 choice Keep Up upset post-time favorite Boisterous by a half-length. 

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent River City trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

River City horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, River City (G3), 1 1/8 miles (turf), 3yos and up (5:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Emmanuel (7-2) — The More Than Ready five-year-old will make his third start for the barn of Mike Maker and will cut back in distance after finishing a 12-length fourth to Far Bridge in the 1 1/2-mile Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont at the Big A. While conditioned by Todd Pletcher, Emmanuel earned a win and a third from two starts at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, but his recent Brisnet Speed figures are light (87, 88) compared to the rest of the field. Luis Saez will pick up the mount and is winning at an 18% clip at Churchill.

#2 Hades (15-1) — The three-year-old gelding upset Fierceness in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in February but has failed to record a win since then, with a 6-0-2-2 record. Trainer Joe Orseno will try the Awesome Slew sophomore on turf for the first time, and Paco Lopez will regain the mount. Orseno is a 5% winner first time out on the turf, but Hades is out of a Quality Road mare who has produced one turf winner from four starters.

#3 Harlan Estate (15-1) — The Kantharos gelding won the one-mile and 70-yard Tapit S. at Kentucky Downs last August and has gone winless in his last nine starts. The late closer will return to Churchill, where he's 0-for-4 but has a pair of second-place finishes and a third. He's also placed three times from five starts at today's distance. Declan Cannon will retain the mount and finished third with the six-year-old last out in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland, where today's rival Masteroffoxhounds finished second, a head better than Harlan Estate.

#4 Reckoning Force (3-1) — A winner of a 1 3/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Saratoga three back, the four-year-old gelding came home a neck third last out in the 1 1/8-mile Knickerbocker (G3) at Aqueduct and will ship back to Churchill, where he has a runner-up and a third-place finish from three career starts at the track. Trainer Brendan Walsh is a 17% winner this meet and a 12% winner in graded stakes. Tyler Gaffalione will ride and had the mount three back in Reckoning Force's most recent victory.

#5 Masteroffoxhounds (12-1) — A seven-year-old by War Front, the Phil D'Amato pupil is 0-for-4 from today's distance and may like shorter. Last out, he set the early pace and had a lead in the stretch of a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland but was caught at the 1 1/16th pole and finished a two-length second. Florent Geroux will inherit the mount and strikes at a 24% clip with early pacesetter types. D'Amato is an 18% winner in graded stakes and a 20% winner second off the layoff. With a field made up mostly of late runners, Masteroffoxhounds does not have much speed to compete with and is likely to have his way on the front end.

#6 Public Sector (15-1) — The six-year-old won two back at today's distance at Woodbine in an allowance optional claimer, then jumped up to graded stakes company and switched to all-weather in the 1 1/16-mile Seagram Cup (G2), where he finished a distant seventh. One of two in the field for Saffie Joseph, Public Sector may switch up tactics and push Masteroffoxhounds for the early lead. He showed early speed three back in the 1 1/8-mile Monmouth S. (G3) but weakened to finish last of nine. Jaime Torres will pick up the mount on the son of Kingman who will return off a more than three-month layoff.

#7 Wonderful Justice (12-1) — The Justify colt won last out with a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed figure when wiring a 1 3/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct and will move back up in class. Trainer Joe Sharp is a 25% winner this meet and a 19% winner third off the layoff. Brian Hernandez Jr. is named to ride on the four-year-old, who recorded a sharp four-furlong workout Nov. 2 at Belmont.

#8 Battle of Normandy (6-1) — A City of Light four-year-old trained by Shug McGaughey, Battle of Normandy rides a three-win streak but has faced allowance company in those starts. He last confronted graded stakes company in the Dueling Grounds Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs last September and gained a lead in the stretch but was beaten to third by Anglophile and next-out winner Far Bridge. Battle of Normandy has a win and two runner-up finishes from three starts at today's distance and will get Luan Machado aboard.

#9 Gigante (12-1) — A four-year-old by Not This Time, Gigante is on a three-race losing streak since winning the one-mile Woodchopper S. at Fair Grounds in December. Two back, he had a lead in the stretch and was beaten to second by I'm Very Busy in the Muniz Memorial (G3). He then dropped down to a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland and came home sixth, outfinished by today's rivals Masteroffoxhounds and Harlan Estate. Trainer Steve Asmussen is an 18% winner second off the layoff, and Edgar Morales will regain the mount.

#10 Cash Equity (5-2) — The morning-line favorite has been racing at a mile in his last three and finished a length second to Goliad in the Mint Millions (G3) as a 14-1 longshot two back at Kentucky Downs. The Saffie Joseph trainee then jumped to Grade 1 competition and was seventh to Carl Spackler in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. The six-year-old gelding will stretch back out to 1 1/8 miles and is 1-for-6 at the distance. Mike Smith, who won the River City in 1987, has the mount for the second straight start on the late closer.