Gulfstream Park: Analyzing the $955,873 mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryover

$955,873. That’s the size of the Rainbow Pick 6 carryover slated for mandatory dispersal on Sunday at Gulfstream Park.

It’s not quite a million dollars, but you can bet the final pool for the 20-cent wager will surpass multiple million-dollar milestones once Sunday’s fresh money is added to the pool. Gulfstream Park is projecting a final pool in excess of $5 million.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 6 at 3:14 p.m. ET. If you’re planning to play along, we’ve got you covered with a suggested single and a live longshot to build tickets around:

Best single: Race 11: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf)

#2 Queen Karima (3-1) is a logical favorite after debuting with a runner-up effort over this course, distance, and class level on Jan. 27. The daughter of Practical Joke was beaten only a neck after carving out the pace.

But Queen Karima escaped with a pretty easy lead that day, running the opening quarter-mile in an uncontested :22.43. She figures to face considerably more pace pressure on Sunday since #10 Oolong Hai (6-1) has set or pressed opening splits of :21.29 and :21.88 over this course, distance, and class level.

So let’s think outside the box and single #3 Shootoutthelights (7-2), an unraced filly debuting for trainer Wesley Ward. She’s a daughter of City of Light (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), and Ward has compiled an excellent 5-2-1-1 (40%) record debuting horses in turf sprints at Gulfstream since 2022.

Shootoutthelights enters off a pair of bullet workouts at Payson Park and has four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz named to ride. All signs suggest Shootoutthelights is sitting on a winning debut.

Live longshot: Race 7: $20,000 Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta)

It’s tempting to single #9 Fly the W (2-1) and call it a day. The morning line favorite won three straight races over this track and distance before finishing third in a recent $32,000 starter optional claimer over the Gulfstream turf course. Returning to Tapeta and the $20,000 level should make the seven-year-old gelding tough to beat.

But while Fly the W is a must-use in the Pick 6, surely #2 A Rose for Raven (20-1) is worth considering as well? The five-year-old gelding has been competing against tougher competition on turf, tackling a $62,500 allowance optional claimer and a $50,000 claimer at Gulfstream before starting in a pair of $32,000 allowance optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs.

A Rose for Raven failed to hit the board in any of those turf contests, but five starts back, he had better luck in a $35,000 claimer racing one mile and 70 yards over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track. In his first (and so far only) start on synthetic, A Rose for Raven tracked a solid pace before battling gamely to beat a next-out winner by a head, earning a sharp 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

A Rose for Raven’s recent defeats on turf have earned decent Brisnet Speed ratings, so his 20-1 morning line odds seem too high. He’s 1-for-1 on Tapeta and is eligible to fire a winning shot while returning to the surface on Sunday.

Good luck!