Gun Runner Stakes trends and field analysis

The final Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep of 2024 will offer 10 points to the winner of Saturday's Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds.

The fourth running of the 1 1/16-mile event for two-year-olds attracted a small but stacked field of five, headlined by recent maiden romper Admiral Dennis.

First run in 2021, the Gun Runner has already significantly impacted the Run for the Roses. The inaugural winner, Epicenter, and the fifth-place finisher, Rich Strike, both earned a spot in the starting gate of the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The post-time favorite on the first Saturday in May, Epicenter came home second, while Rich Strike collected the garland of roses beneath the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs as an 80-1 longshot.

Quality Road sired the 2022 and 2023 winners of the Gun Runner — Jace's Road and Track Phantom, respectively. Track Phantom is trained by Steve Asmussen, who also saddled Epicenter.

The post-time favorite has yet to win the Gun Runner, but all three victors were short prices. Epicenter dominated by 6 1/2 lengths as the 2.90-1 second choice in 2021, while Jace's Road was a 5 1/2-length winner at 2.40-1 odds in 2022. Track Phantom was a 1 1/4-length winner as the 4.90-1 third choice last season.

Jace's Road went gate to wire in the 8 1/2-furlong stakes, and Track Phantom and Epicenter were never farther back than second at any point in the race.

Previous winning jockeys include Brian Hernandez Jr. (2021), Florent Geroux (2022), and Cristian Torres (2023). Only Hernandez has a mount in the 2024 edition, with #2 Render Judgment (4-1).

In the short history of the race, four starters in the Gun Runner have gone on to run in the greatest two minutes in sports. Aside from Epicenter and Rich Strike, Jace's Road finished 17th in the 2023 Kentucky Derby and 2022 Gun Runner runner-up Raise Cain came home eighth in the Derby.

Winners of the Gun Runner have also fared well in other prep races along the Road to the Derby. Epicenter went on to finish second in the Lecomte (G3) and won the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), all at Fair Grounds. Jace's Road placed fifth in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn before returning to Fair Grounds and finishing third in the Louisiana Derby, and Track Phantom prevailed in the Lecomte before finishing second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Gun Runner trends, let's explore the 2024 field.

Gun Runner Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Race 7, Gun Runner S., 1 1/16 miles, 2yos (4 p.m. ET)

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#1 Built (7-2) — The Hard Spun two-year-old out of a Curlin mare finished fourth to Breeders' Futurity (G1) hero East Avenue on debut, then graduated at second asking in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland on Oct. 6. Today's race rival Render Judgment came home second by 1 1/2 lengths. Built will make his stakes debut in his third career start while coming off a more than two-month layoff. Trainer Wayne Catalano is a 16% winner with shippers and a 13% winner off layoffs of 46 to 90 days. Regular rider Corey Lanerie will retain the mount on the colt, who put in a sharp five-furlong workout Dec. 11 at Fair Grounds. His 89 Brisnet figure from his maiden win is also the second-highest last-out speed rating in the field.

#2 Render Judgment (4-1) — A son of Blame, Render Judgment broke his maiden in his second career start when stretching out to a route for the first time in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill. Last out, he finished 8 1/2 lengths fifth in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Trainer Kenny McPeek is a 20% winner in non-graded stakes, but he's cold to start the Fair Grounds meet, with a 13-0-3-2 record. Brian Hernandez Jr. will retain the mount and is winning at a 15% clip at Fair Grounds. 

#3 Magnitude (2-1) — By Not This Time, the Winchell Thoroughbreds color bearer is 2-for-4 lifetime, with victories in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park in July and a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill on Nov. 17 last out. He posted an 86 Brisnet figure most recently and may step forward second start off the layoff. Trainer Steve Asmussen is winning at a 25% rate this meet and a 41% rate paired up with jockey Jose Ortiz over the last two months. Ortiz is picking up the mount on Magnitude for the first time, and he's 77-27-11-12 to start the Fair Grounds meet.

#4 Chris's Revenge (6-1) — A two-year-old by Instagrand, the Brittany Russell trainee won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden claimer in his second career start with an 81 Brisnet figure and posted an identical speed rating last out in a one-mile allowance, where he came home fourth at Churchill. He'll stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs for the first time and will pick up Jaime Torres, a 13% winner with routes. Chris's Revenge will need a huge step forward to contend for the win, as his speed figures are the lightest among the field.

#5 Admiral Dennis (9-5) — A high-profile Constitution colt in the barn of Brad Cox, Admiral Dennis finished a troubled third on debut in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill, then improved at second asking with a 3 1/2-length victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at the same track on Nov. 7. His 91 Brisnet figure is the highest last-race speed figure and best dirt speed figure among the field. Cox is a 27% winner with horses coming off a maiden win, and Luis Saez is winning at a 30% clip paired with Cox over the last 60 days. Admiral Dennis also put in a bullet five-furlong workout on Dec. 7 at Fair Grounds.