Handicapping Kentucky Derby, Oaks qualifiers at Aqueduct

Saturday’s 11-horse Gotham (G3), a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier that awards points on a 50-20-10-5 scale to the top four finishers, has attracted an abundance of early speed. That includes the top two choices on the morning line, Mischevious Alex and Untitled, and a hot pace exacted an extreme toll upon the frontrunners in the 2019 Gotham, when Haikal rallied from a double-digit length deficit to prevail by a length.

Attachment Rate broke his maiden at the same one-turn mile distance as the Gotham. He scored by a widening, 6 1/4-length margin in the slop at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 15. The late-running son of Hard Spun also ran well when in his 2020 debut on a fast track, when he missed by less than a length to Market Analysis, a well-regarded Todd Pletcher trainee who will contest Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

Purchased for $200,000 at the 2018 Keeneland September yearling sale, Attachment Rate has registered commendable Brisnet Speed ratings of 93 and 101 in the last two starts. Those numbers are on par with his main rivals, and the chestnut colt still has plenty of potential upside for Dale Romans.

Attachment Rate has shown signs of immaturity in both starts this year. He got away slowly two starts back and switched to the wrong lead and weaved unopposed through the stretch last time out. He is eligible to keep improving in his third start off the layoff Saturday. I like his Brisnet Late Pace figures (110, 95), and Attachment Rate can take advantage of a favorable set up in the Gotham.

Gotham wagers

$20 win and place: #4 Attachment Rate

A race earlier on the Aqueduct card, eight fillies will seek points toward a Kentucky Oaks (G1) berth in the Busher Invitational S., a one-turn mile. Lake Avenue, the even-money morning-line favorite, will make her first start since a four-length romp in the Dec. 7 Demoiselle (G2). She certainly can’t be dismissed from win consideration, but I will tab another rival for a minor upset.

Mo City proved much the best when she made her debut at Tampa Bay Downs in early December, when she seized the lead on the far turn and rolled home to a 5 1/4-length decision. Things did not go as smoothly the next time out, when she rallied to finish a close second in the Jan. 18 Gasparilla S.

She traveled extremely wide down the backstretch and along the far turn after a slow start in the Gasparilla. When the wire-to-wire winner drifted out straightening for home, Mo City was angled inward and raced diagonally toward the rail. Jockey Pablo Morales was forced to try to straighten her out at a key moment in the stretch drive.

The bay daughter of Uncle Mo kept trying all the way but missed by a neck, and Mo City should gain valuable seasoning from her stakes debut. I expect to see her keep moving forward for trainer Michael Stidham, and the frontrunning favorite is eligible to catch early pressure in her first start back from a three-month hiatus.

Busher wagers

$10 win and place: #1 Mo City

$10 exacta box: 1, 5 (Mo City, Lake Avenue)