Handicapping mandatory-payout carryovers at Turfway Park and Aqueduct

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson celebrates New Year’s Eve by analyzing a pair of mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryovers at Turfway Park and Aqueduct.

Turfway Park, Race 3: $71,804 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:45 p.m. ET)

The Turfway Park Holiday Meet concludes on New Year’s Eve with the mandatory payout of a $71,804 Single 6 carryover.

The 20-cent Pick 6 wager is normally a jackpot-style bet, but the carryover must be dispersed on the final racing day of the year, which means all winning bettors will split the jackpot on Saturday.

The sequence gets underway in Race 3, a maiden special weight taking place over one mile on Tapeta. #10 More Than Work (8-5) s a deserving morning line favorite; he’s cracked the trifecta in four of his five starts and was beaten only a neck when rallying to finish second over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 3.

But don’t overlook #6 King Curlin (9-5), who finished just half a length behind More Than Work when third on Dec. 3. King Curlin showed tactical speed that day and may sit a perfect trip in this largely paceless field.

We recommend using More Than Work and King Curlin in equal strength to start the Pick 6. That’s not quite as helpful as suggesting a single, but take heart, Race 8 provides a perfect single opportunity. The event in question is a maiden special weight for juveniles racing one mile on Tapeta, and #9 Endpoint (8-5) is a formidable favorite.

A son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist out of a mare by Preakness S. (G1) hero Bernardini, Endpoint is conditioned by red-hot trainer Paulo Lobo, who has gone 11-for-27 (41%) at Turfway this meet. After failing to seriously threaten in his first two starts sprinting, Endpoint showed improvement when stretching out in distance for a pair of two-turn maiden special weights, finishing third over 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland second over 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs.

The latter effort produced a lofty 88 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest figure belonging to any horse in Saturday’s field. If Endpoint handles switching from dirt to Tapeta (a 21% winning move for Lobo), he can cruise to victory under Turfway’s red-hot leading jockey Gerardo Corrales.

Aqueduct, Race 4: $22,612 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:46 p.m. ET)

Turfway isn’t the only track offering a mandatory-payout carryover on New Year’s Eve. Aqueduct is getting in on the action with the dispersal of a $22,612 Pick 6 prize pool.

The best chance to find a single in this $1 wager might come in Race 8, the Queens County S. taking place over 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Graded stakes winner #5 Law Professor (5-2) is descending sharply in class after running second in the Woodward (G1) and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Law Professor has been squaring off against elite Grade 1 campaigners like Life Is Good, Cody’s Wish, and Cyberknife, so tackling ungraded competition at Aqueduct can send Law Professor to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Rob Atras.

Good luck!