Handicapping Saturday’s Late Pick 4 at Saratoga

by SCOTT SHAPIRO

The late Pick 4 on Saturday afternoon at Saratoga features three two-turn grass races, including the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) and $100,000 Fasig-Tipton Lure. With a couple of chances to bust out over the four-race sequence this is certainly a series of events that is worth taking a shot at.

Race 8: Fourstardave Handicap

The lone graded stakes race in the sequence should see an honest early pace given the presence of #5 Heart to Heart and #6 Voodoo Song. I will hope they go at it early and set things up for either #2 Delta Prince or #4 Made You Look.

For my full analysis of the Fourstardave:

https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2018/8/10/how-bet-fourstardave-handicap

Race 9

The only dirt race in the Saturday late Pick 4 is a high-level optional claimer at seven furlongs. I will make the risky move of fading the two Chad Brown runners in this sprint over the main track.

#1 Patternrecognition has won two of eight, but has had an affinity for finishing second and burning money in the process. The inside draw does him no favors. #3 Mask has been a major disappointment since firing a 100 BRIS Speed rating in January in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park. He takes on older runners for the initial time and is also worth taking a shot against off the two-month freshening.

I will use multiple horses, including #6 Storm Runner for trainer Dale Romans. The son of Get Stormy should appreciate the return to a sprint after taking his shot on the Derby Trail earlier this year.

Race 10: Lure Stakes

This 1 1/16-mile event that was originally scheduled for last Saturday as part of the Whitney Day card drew a solid field of eight if you omit the two MTO’s.

#3 Inspector Lynley is my top choice. The five-year-old son of Lemon Drop Kid overcame a less than ideal voyage in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) and missed by just a half-length to the razor sharp Mr. Misunderstood. Shug McGaughey brings him in off a near two-month freshening over a surface he won his only start over back in September of 2016.

I will also include the uncoupled Juddmonte Farms entry of #1 Projected and #6 Forge. Projected came from off the pace to miss by a half-length to Voodoo Song last time out while Forge failed to fire in the seven-furlong Connaught Cup Stakes (G2) at Woodbine. They both could be sitting on big efforts.

Race 11

The finale is a challenging state-bred maiden claimer at one mile over the inner turf course.

#4 Super Mama is listed as the 2-1-morning line favorite on the drop out of special weight company for trainer Jorge Abreu, but she is hard to trust since she has not been seen since last July. I will use several in hopes I can close out the sequence with a price. Be sure to check to see if the also eligible runners draw in since #12 Hit a Provisional, #13 Shanghai Dreams and #14 Sardonyx all have significant chances if they get to run.

Suggested Ticket: (50-cent Pick 4)

Race 8: 2,4

Race 9: 2,5,6,7

Race 10: 1,3,6

Race 11: 1,3,4,5

Ticket Cost: $48