Handicapping the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs

The Pocahontas S. (G3) anchors Thursday's Churchill Downs card. The race has been shortened to a mile for the first time since 2012, and 12 fillies will battle for a bid to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on Nov. 6.

Race 10: Pocahontas S. (1 mile, 5:58 p.m. ET)

#6 Crazy Beautiful (2-1) has been impressive so far, with two starts and two wins.

Her score in the Ellis Park Debutante was particularly impressive. She sliced through horses in the upper stretch, with the fearless maturity of an older horse making far more than just her second start.

She romped at a mile in her turf debut. Her last-out win showed she can adapt to an extended one-turn configuration on dirt.

With rain in the forecast, her pedigree is excellent if the track is wet. Sire Liam's Map is 25% (11-for-44) so far on slop, her dam won on an off track, and her only sibling to try wet dirt relished it.

It also adds confidence that Crazy Beautiful comes from the barn of Ken McPeek, who has won this race twice already.

The other horse who shapes up as one of the leading contenders is #10 Inject, who galloped clear to a six-length victory on debut at Ellis.

The stretch to a mile shouldn't be a problem for this three-quarter sister to Belmont (G1) winner Tapwrit. But this time around, she will have a lot more company up front from other winning stretch-out sprinters, and she hasn't proven her ability to deal with traffic the way Crazy Beautiful has.

In short, Crazy Beautiful looks like the goods in the Pocahontas. She is a win bet and a single in multi-race wagers through the race.

As a value play or an exotics horse, #11 Girl Daddy (8-1) merits consideration. She didn't come away perfectly on debut but had plenty left to pass horses and romp home in a six-furlong maiden at Ellis.

The daughter of Uncle Mo is bred to stretch out, and the mud breeding on both sides appeals, given the forecast.

$20 to win on #6 Crazy Beautiful

Good luck!