Harness Weekly Update: 7% win hit rate and 40% ATB

TwinSpires Staff

October 23rd, 2023

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the next Update’s results.

Thursday, Oct. 19

Hoosier’s Breeders Crown (BC) presentation began with a sloppy track of eliminations. Our choices were mostly aimed at lesser public choices. Still, we wound up with a winner that everyone loved with Drawn Impression ($3.80, $3.60, $3.40) and a second with Chaparmbro ($3.20, $2.40) igniting a $10.40 exacta.

Our other three contenders finished sixth, including Mars Hill (12-1), Draw The Line (22-1), and Pick Pocket (9-1), and were beaten by favorites.

Friday, Oct. 20

More BC elims offered divisions where contenders delivered cash across the board.
Our winners were Strong Poison ($10.20, $2.60, $2.10) and Storm Shadow ($7.40, $3.80, $2.60).

We finished second with Heaven Hanover ($11.00, $4.60) and Blue Pacific ($2.20, $2.10—Exacta $6.20 with the favorite).

A third finish came from Nuclear ($5.00).

Three contenders finished fourth—Huntingforchrome (24-1), Caviart Belle (5-1) and Mcseaside (11-1).

Blonde Bombshell (10-1) finished fifth.

H2W LIST RESULTS

Exactas listed in H2W results reflect an H2W horse finishing second to a race favorite, or if the first two finishers were on the list, when an asterisk appears for cold exactas. The note “ok” determines prices are correct when a show price exceeds the place price, or all three prices are identical.

This week, we achieved a 7% win hit rate and a 40% ATB [across-the-board] hit. Horses with asterisks before their names were tweets @FrankCotolo. Follow for late choices.

Winners

Cantstop Yankee, $23.80, $5.80, $6.50 ok), Yonkers
Chase The Ace, $9.60, $3.60, $3.40, Northville
Bugatti, $4.90, $3.10, $2.10, Batavia

Seconds

Amy L, $12.80, $8.20, Dayton
Twin B Jammer, $7.20, $4.20, Meadows
Ariser, $6.00, $3.60 (Exacta $18.00), Northville
Googoo Eyes, $6.00, $2.60, Philly
Unique Beach, $5.90, $3.60, Monticello
Clemmie Hanover, $5.80, $4.70), Vernon
Picaboo Lady, $4.20, $2.10 (Exacta $10.00), Hoosier

Thirds

Harry Hanover, $5.20, Meadowlands
Gotta Be Good, $4.00, Vernon
Deerrun Sandy, $3.40, Northville
Rock On Express, $3.40, Meadows
Kokanee Seelster, $3.20, Plainridge
Bet A Bundle, $3.00, Meadowlands
Bettor Be Oscar A, $2.80, Meadowlands
Pax Hanover, $2.50, Saratoga

NEWS & NOTES

It appears the only lock in harness racing is Horse of the Year. Handicapping the field—which includes every division—it is no stretch of the wildest imagination that Confederate, the super sophomore-pacing colt, has secured the spot. This handicapping is based upon the fact that no other Standardbred has shown dominance in any division as has the Brett Pelling-trained Confederate.

Of all divisions (ages), Confederate is the top earner with $1.2 million. He is followed by freshman-colt trotter T C I ($1 million) and soph-colt pacer It’s My Show ($1 million) as of this posting. Completing the top 10 earners in order are Tactical Approach, Tattoo Artist, It’s Academic, Jiggy Jog S, Seven Colors, Twin B Joe Fresh and Grace Hill.