Harness Weekly Update: 18% win rate on H2W list

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features, and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the next Harness update’s results. 

Thursday, Oct. 5

Our Mohawk Miles trio became a duo with the scratch of Barstow Belle. The two contenders left were both beaten by one of the crowd’s top three choices. Pay The Price (4-1) finished sixth and Jayport Anna May (13-1) finished seventh.

Friday, Oct. 6

At The Red Mile, we only hit the board twice in the six races we faced. Mars Hill ($3.38) was defeated by a 10-1 shot, and Peace Talks ($4.44, $3.68) lost to the public’s second choice. Otherwise, Smart Schooner, a favorite, broke and finished sixth, Seaside Diva (24-1) was fifth, Magic Hill (7-1) fourth, and Bargain (25-1) fifth.

Sunday, Oct. 8

Due to posting deadlines, our forecasts for the Kentucky Futurities are reported in our next Harness update.

H2W LIST RESULTS

This week, there were 38 active H2W horses with an 18% win hit rate and a 37% across-the-board hit rate.

Exactas listed in H2W results reflect an H2W horse finishing second to a race favorite, or if the first two finishers were on the list, when an asterisk appears for cold exactas. The note “OK” determines prices are correct when a show price exceeds the place price, or all three prices are identical.  

Winners 

• Shadows Dancers, $17.20, $6.20, $3.60, Dayton
• Denmark Seelster, $13.80, $3.30, $2.30, Batavia
• Louthepirate, $10.20, $4.60, $3.40, Rosecroft
• Dry Ridge Ace, $6.80, $3.60, $2.80, Freehold
• Bettorbytheseaside, $6.20, $3.80, $3.20, Meadows
• Seeuinnashville A, $3.60, $2.50, $2.10, Monticello
• Ideal’s Nicole, $2.80, $2.20, $2.10, Hawthorne

Seconds

• Havana Ooh Nana, $4.50, $3.30 (Exacta, $20.20), Vernon
• Cathy Hanover, $4.00, $$2.80 (Exacta $25.40), Meadows
• American Zest, $3.60, $3.40 (Exacta $25.60), Plainridge
• Always On Top, $3.20, $2.10 (Exacta $5.00), Rosecroft

Thirds

• Big Kan D, $4.20, Northville
• Super Betcha, $2.80, Vernon
• Blowin Smoke, $2.40, Rosecroft

NEWS & NOTES 

The Meadowlands resumes live harness racing on the weekend of Oct. 20-21. It continues each weekend through the remainder of 2023. The fourth and fifth legs of the Kindergarten Series highlight the first two weeks, leading into the finals and consolations on Saturday, Nov. 4. 

For this season’s pacing and trotting freshmen, we observe closely the earning performances of their sires. No matter the generation of crops, and even if a sire has passed, his progeny are best measured by a sire’s earning percentages. As the Breeders Crown (BC) nears, here are the top sires used as handicapping tools in 2023. 

For trotters: Chapter Seven; Walner, Father Patrick, Cantab Hall, Muscle Hill. 

For pacers: Captaintreacherous, Sweet Lou, Bettor’s Delight, Huntsville, Stayhungry-Downbytheseaside (tie).

Indulge in our new monthly column, Among Ourselves at Harness Racing Update.