Harness Weekly Update: 19% win rate and 50% ATB

TwinSpires Staff

November 6th, 2023

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the next Update’s results.

Thursday, Nov. 6

Our Mohawk Miles section returned last week. One contender hit the board. P L Robert G ($3.10, $2.10) completed a $5.60 exacta with the favorite. Otherwise, Social Distanced (20-1) finished fourth to a 12-1 shot while Brooklyn Strong (45-1) finished sixth to the race favorite.

Friday, Nov. 7

Hoosier hosted stakes action with four major mile events for three-year-olds. Among our contenders in the soph-colt pace, we nailed Coach Stefanos ($17.60, $6.60, $3.80) with Stockade Seelster ($2.40) third, Command (22-1) fifth, and Admiral Hill (17-1) sixth.

The soph colt trotters lined up to be beaten again by Tactical Approach ($3.20, $2.60, $2.20). French Wine (7-2) finished fourth, and Celebrity Bambino (7-1) broke and hopped home 10th.

We won with Strong Poison ($3.40, $2.20, $2.10) for the filly pacers with Beach Cowgirl ($3.00, $2.20) second for a cold $9.00. exacta. Mcseaside (11-1) finished fifth.

Filly trotters awarded us only third with Rose Run Yolanda ($3.80). Picaboo Lady (72-1) continued to disappoint, finishing seventh.

Saturday, Nov. 8

Four frosh Kindergarten finals at the Meadowlands completed our week of features. We had one winner: Lou Vuitton ($6.00, $2.60, $2.40). Sarasota Hanover ($2.10) finished third while Go For Gaagaa No (20-1) and Thinker Monkey (70-1) made no progress against foes.

H2W LIST RESULTS

Exactas listed in H2W results reflect an H2W horse finishing second to a race favorite, or if the first two finishers were on the list, when an asterisk appears for cold exactas. The note “ok” determines prices are correct when a show price exceeds the place price, or all three prices are identical.

This week, there were 42 active horses (a 19% win hit rate and a 50% ATB (across-the-board) hit.

Winners

Taragon, $12.80, $4.20, $8.40 ok, Rosecroft
Winning Is Sweet, $8.10, $3.90, $2.70, Monticello
See You Tuesday, $5.30, $3.10, $3.30 ok, Monticello
Girl Almighty, $5.20, $3.20, $2.60, Freehold
Captain Crusader A, $5.00, $3.20, $2.40, Meadowlands
Billy Clyde, $4.60, $3.40, $2.40, Hoosier
Vegas Rocks, $4.40, $3.20, $2.20, Plainridge
Might Be Right, $2.20, $2.10, $2.10, Meadows

Seconds

Heerz Hoosierhunny, $11.60, $7.80, Dayton
Stars Align, $7.80, $4.40, Dayton
Six Degrees, $4.50, $3.20, Saratoga
Bet On Zette, $4.40, $2.20, Meadows
Major Humor, $4.20, $2.70 (Exacta $25.30), Monticello
Century Jamila, $4.00, $3.00 (Exacta $13.00), Meadowlands
Bluebird Recon, $3.30, $3.20 (Exacta $17.20), Yonkers
Greatest Ending, $2.20, $2.40 ok, Plainridge
Hellabalou, $2.20, $2.20 ok, Hoosier

Thirds

Cowgirl Lilly, $4.10, Yonkers
Swan Leader, $4.00, Northville
Lyons Beachboy, $2.60, Pocono
Vintage Chrome, $2.40, Northville

NEWS & NOTES

When tracks end seasons, there are usually "horses to watch" that either have not been added to the H2W list or were left with one more time to be added. As we follow the schedule of our H2W contenders for their two-time listing (if they have not won the first time), we place these types on the list where they will race next.

The hegemony of Confederate—this year’s soph-colt pacing champ—is not only the 1-100 candidate for 2023 Horse of the Year, he would have been the most anticipated pacer to return at four. However, according to breeders/owners Diamond Creek Farm, Confederate is off to the breeding shed. Oddly enough, his sire, Sweet Lou, raced better as an aged pacer than at two and three. Sweet Lou was heralded at two to an extent he did not live up to, making his successful aged record surprising. Conjecture plays a role in prediction—could Confederate be less of a contender as an aged pacer, reversing the path of his sire’s history?