Harness Weekly Update: H2W list delivers 45% in the money

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the next Update’s results. 

Thursday, Sept. 28

Our Mohawk Miles trio put two on the board, both show finishers to favorites. They were The Right Time ($2.40) and Lyons Bettorday ($2.20). Pay The Price (6-1) finished fifth.

At The Red Mile, two of our frosh-colt trotter contenders won: Mars Hill ($4.54, $3.36, $2.86) and Smart Schooner ($8.74, $3.36, $2.86). Two others in the division, Bargain (6-1) and Sig Sauer, were eliminated after breaking. One other, Stormcloudfashion (24-1), finished sixth.

Two of our frosh-filly pacing contenders finished second: Sea Shanty Hanover ($5.10, $3.44) and Peace Talks ($3.28, $2.10). Seaside Diva (9-1) finished fifth mostly due to broken equipment.

Friday, Sept. 29

Favorites defeated our trio of frosh-colt pacing contenders. Nuclear (19-1) finished fifth; Ivy Park (4-1), eighth; and Lou Vuitton (26-1) fourth.

Our lone frosh-filly trot contender, Chaparmbro ($2.10), was third.

Saturday, Sept. 30

At Dayton, we won with Jiggy Jog S ($2.80, $2.10, $2.10). Favorites beat us badly over Keg Stand (29-1) and Lou’s Pearlman (18-1), both finishing ninth. Another favorite beat Marloe Hanover (73-1), who was fourth.

H2W LIST RESULTS

This week, there were 42 active H2W horses (a 7% win hit rate and a 45% across-the-board hit rate).

Exactas listed in H2W results reflect an H2W horse finishing second to a race favorite, or if the first two finishers were on the list, when an asterisk appears for cold exactas. The note “OK” determines prices are correct when a show price exceeds the place price or all three prices are identical.  

Winners 

*Vel Letsroll South, $5.00, $2.80, $2.20, Saratoga
Tellitsabb, $4.00, $4.00, $2.60 OK, Dayton
Ponda Hawk, $3.20, $3.20, $2.40 OK, Hawthorne

Seconds

Modern Rock, $6.60, $3.60, Pocono
Rockin Nola, $4.40, $2.88, Red Mile
Odds On Brexit, $4.00, $3.80 (Exacta $13.20), Vernon
Vinny Lou, $3.20, $2.40 (Exacta $9.40), Hawthorne
Daniova, $3.00, $2.10 (Exacta $7.60), Northville
Armada Hanover, $2.80, $2.40 (Exacta $9.60), Pocono
Special Olivia, $2.40, $2.10, Vernon
*American Zest A, $2.10, $2.10 OK (Exacta $10.20)

Thirds

Archetto Hanover, $5.20, Hawthorne
Rocktavius, $5.00, Rosecroft
In Rock We Trust, $3.40, Dayton
Sharp Looker, $3.20, Dayton
Jollity, $3.00, Philly
Sweet Truth, $3.00, Hoosier
Betterbytheseaside, $2.10, Hoosier
White Claw, $2.10, Rosecroft

NEWS & NOTES 

The Red Mile’s Grand Circuit (GC) meet is important for handicappers looking ahead to The Breeders Crown (BC). Divisional champs will emerge in finals, but eliminations should be the main target to find valuable outsider bets. Watching Red Mile performances in the GC stakes over the two-week meet is essential. Forget about speed records and driver streaks; watch races and take trip notes because where the betting public is soft there will be great bets in BC elims. 

H2W and feature results for this week (above) displayed an unusual number of our contenders losing due to breaking stride. Some of them were well bet in their field, but under any circumstances couldn’t be measured by the ordinary incident of breaking stride. Under the H2W conditions, some of the galloping losers will appear once more on the list—do not punish their chances due to breaks.

There is a 12% takeout for Dayton's Pick 5 wager and 15-percent takeout on the Pick 3 and Pick 4. The Superfecta, High 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 also have a 100% carryover net pool into the next card of racing. The meet continues through Dec. 30 with a 4 p.m. (ET) post time. 

Indulge in our new monthly column, Among Ourselves, at Harness Racing Update.