Harness Weekly Update: Hambletonian Day review; 41% H2W hit the board

TwinSpires Staff

August 6th, 2023

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the next Update’s results.

Thursday, Aug. 3

Our trio of Mohawk Miles contenders produced a single winner, a favorite, Top Mast ($3.00, $2.40, $2.10). Another one emerging as second favorite, Cruising Tom, broke and retreated, finishing off the board. The third, Job Hunter (57-1) ended the mile ninth.

Yonkers New York Sires Stakes for soph-filly pacers was a cinch for public choices. We were third with Sweet Home ($2.10) and sixth with B On The Hunt (32-1). Watch for their returns either in sires stakes or H2W lists.

Saturday, Aug. 5

The Hambletonian delivered a longshot, but not our longshot. French Wine (39-1) did not keep up with the colts closing on the rail and finished eighth to a 10-1 winner.

Shady Daisy—The mile was more exciting at the wire than most short fields, but super-favorite Sylvia Hanover ($2.10, n/p, n/s), our choice too, won.

Dr. John Steele—Our chances were snuffed as the gate opened, and Fashion Schooner (6-1) began to gallop, and finished last galloping.

The Lady Liberty—We nabbed a minor upset, winning with Silver Label ($10.60, $5.80, $3,20).

Sam McKee—In the first of two divisions, our choice, Southwind Gendry (6-1), was nowhere near fast enough to even hit the board in this fiery mile. In the second division our choice, Tattoo Artist ($2.40, $2.10), became the crowd’s choice but finished second.

Hambletonian Oaks—Second in a multi-trotter charge for the wire was our choice, Bond ($6.40, $4.00).

John Cashman—Another second on our tab was Venerate ($5.00, $3.20).

Cane Pace—Finishing second again, this time to the overwhelming favorite, was our contender Seven Colors ($7.80, $4.60). Ammo (46-1) apparently is not the colt we thought he was for some time now.

H2W RESULTS

This week, there were 39 active H2W horses (a 10% win hit rate and a 41% across-the-board hit rate).

Exactas listed in H2W results reflect an H2W horse finishing second to a race favorite, or if the first two finishers were on the list, when an asterisk appears for cold exactas. The note “OK” determines prices are correct when a show price exceeds the place price, or all three prices are identical.

Winners

One Hand Keg Stand, $8.40, $3.60, $3.80 OK, Tioga
Max, $8.00, $5.40, $3.70, Yonkers
Needham Hanover, $3.40, $2.80, $2,40, Philly
Kilmister, $3.00, $2.10, $2.10 OK, Meadowlands

Seconds

Kerrin Joseph A, $6.40, $4.60, Hoosier
Ask Me If I Care, $4.20, $2.80 (Exacta $8.40), Northville
Blonde Bombshell, $4.20, $2.60, Meadowlands
Finnbar, $3.00, $3.20, Plainridge

Thirds

Swanky Hanover, $5.36, Red Mile
Love That Smile, $5.00, Pocono
Holton, $4.60, Northville
Sweeney, $3.80, Northfield
Got Hot Mom, $2.90, Monticello
Makadushin N Cheeze, $2.40, Vernon
Quarrel, $2.20, Plainridge
Warrawee Whisper, $2.10, Mohawk

NEWS & NOTES

Readers/players may have noticed that state-bred events are rife with favorite winners. The competition is as filled with talent, but in each division in every state, the burden on winning chances for second-and-on choices has been miserable. As we continue to cover these events, be assured we are not ignoring the trend by presenting contenders that are unpopular to the public; we are merely addressing the overlays presented.

And more for players: Those of you investing in multi-race exotics, please remember that our feature-outside-contender choices and our H2W horses often wind up in the scheme of “Pick” races, and using them is a good idea. However, the bets are usually more valuable in their individual events. When you have an outside contender win a Pick leg, you need other winners to cash in on the ticket. In a single race, the win, place, and show and exotics for such a contestant is an investment with a greater chance of profit.