Harness Weekly Update: Rowdy Stakes Sizzle

The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features and the H2W (horses-to-watch list, now including Hoosier spin-offs and this week's Delaware, Ohio “Jug” Week and Mohawk features).

Wednesday, Sept. 22

The Jugette surprise for us was the success of only one elim (elim 2) for Test Of Faith ($2.60, $2.10, $2.10). (We apologize for mixing the elims in our original copy.) The rain-soaked track was no excuse for the fabulous filly to lose the final, finishing second ($2.10, $2.10 OK) to the 5-2 second choice (winner of elim 1.)

In the first elim, we expected better from Chase Lounge (10-1), but she never got going and finished last of six, not making the final.

The Buckettes were also short fields of six. In the first division, we finished third with Treasure Gems K ($3.20) to the favorite. In the second division, we finished last with Frankly My Dear (28-1), who didn’t “give a damn,” as Rhett Butler said, and trailed throughout. The favorite won this division, too.

On Jugette day, there were nine winning favorites, four second choice winners, two third choice winners, and five double-digit winners with a high of $44.20.

Thursday, Sept. 23

The Little Brown Jug (LBJ) elims were short fields, and the results led to a battle of the two favorites from each elim. We were enthusiastic when those two favorites were not our choice to sweep the event, but our choice came up short. Whichwaytothebeach ($2.40, $2.10) was second in his elim, while our choice for second, Mysweetboymax ($3.20), paced third. If you used the race favorite first (or boxed) with our other choices, the 50-cent trifecta came back $4.45 ($17.80 for $2).

In the second elim, much of the crowd agreed that we had a solid contender with Rockyroad Hanover (8-5) but he tanked near the third turn and finished sixth of six. Once again we noted the failure of Perfect Sting to live up to his enormous hype.

Friday, Sept. 24

Hoosier’s evening of stakes had few surprises for us, but the public knew better. All of the races, which included some high-profile pacers and trotters from the national scene, were won by the race favorite or second choice. Here’s a list of how we did in order of our success; comments included.

Ocean Rock ($7.20, $4.20, $3.80)—We had no idea he would be so loved.
Lyons Serenity ($3.20, $2.40, $2.20)
Take All Comers ($2.20)—Shocking he did not do better.
Ready For Moni—Fourth at 4-1?
Iteration—Fifth at 3-1? Not getting better at this level; prediction failed.
R Desireable Lady—Sixth at 7-1. Broke in stretch while lagging.
Dalby Hanover—Seventh at 14-1. We expected more from local trainer.
One Eight Hundred—Eighth at 9-1. Takter has a dull performer as it turns out.

Saturday, Sept. 25

The Mohawk Million went to the filly-favorite Venerable. She benefited from a quick skip in stride by King Of The North (2-1) who came back off of the jump to finish fifth, and another of our contenders, Selfie Queen (8-1), who galloped midway and was eliminated. Fourth was our other contender, The Mighty Hill (27-1).

In the Milton our also-eligible pick did not make it into the race and her follow-up choice, JK First Lady (13-1), finished sixth behind the winning favorite.

Few had chances any better than our 83-1 Just Divine as super public choice Niki Hill won the Shes A Great Lady Final.

The Metro Pace stunned most as the favorites finished off the board. We had the 6-1 Wearinmysixshooter ($7.60, $5.60) who gave up a five-length lead and finished second to a 15-1 shot flying late.

H2W LIST RESULTS

The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Exactas listed include a H2W horse finishing second to a race-favorite or if the first two finishers are H2W horses (an asterisk appears when both horses are listed—a cold exacta). The note “OK” determines that prices are correct (even when a show price exceeds a place price or all prices are the same).

Please note that some results reflect horses racing after the blog posts (they appear the following week).

This week, there were 51 active horses (an 18% win hit rate and a 39% ATB [across-the-board] hit). Horses with asterisks before their names were tweets @FrankCotolo. Follow for late choices.

Winners

Waves Of Fire A, $14.40, $8.30, $5.30, Yonkers
Frantasy Hanover, $8.80, $4.80, $3.80, Mohawk
Captain Cowboy, $5.40, $2.80, $2.20, Ohio Fair
Holton, $5.20, $3.20, $2.60, Northville
Sunshine Queen, $3.80, $2.20, $2.10, Hoosier
Unusual Clarity, $3.70, $2.80, $2.90 OK, Vernon
Ima Diamond Babe, $3.20, $2.80, $2.10, Hoosier
Skyline Hanover, $3.00, $2.20, $2.10, Freehold
Major Leaguer, $2.50, $2.30, $2.10, Vernon

Seconds

Retha Babe, $14.20, $8.20, Hoosier
Uptown Callie, $6.00, $2.60 (Exacta, $5.60), Northfield
Patriot Nation, $4.60, $3.10, Yonkers
RM Blackhawk, $4.40, $3.20 (Exacta $6.60), Freehold
Air Guitar, $3.60, $2.20, Yonkers
Hardware Princess, $3.60, $2.80, Monticello
Dramatist, $2.60, $2.10, Monticello
Voelz Delight, $2.40, $2.10, Mohawk

Thirds

Lynbar Rose N, $4.40, Yonkers
Top Notch, $3.80, Northville
Kolin, $2.10, Pocono

NEWS & NOTES

During the five days of racing at the Delaware County Fair in Ohio, 43 top choices won the 89 races—a rate of 48%. Every winning horse paid two digits (the high win price for the meet was $62.40). The flat-bet profit rate, however, is not an applicable calculation of the double-digit-paying winners’ total ($402) minus the price to play each of 89 races using $2 as the base bet ($178)—because the odds of any one bettor hitting all of the longshots that won is astronomical, at the least.

The LBJ’s major problem over the past decade has been the inability to attract the best of the glamour-boy pacing division to enter the event. This year’s five-colt eliminations were missing an abundance of top colts, which has been the case for some years now. Many owners do not care to race twice in a day on a half-mile track and opt to skip the Ohio fair for the Grand Circuit at The Red Mile. Among many reasons, ’21 MIAs included Charlie May, Desperate Man, Hellabalou, Bulldog Hanover, Chase H Hanover, Abuckabett Hanover, Southwind Gendry, and more.

Fraser Downs opened its 29-date fall meeting on Sept. 22. Following a Wednesday card on Sept. 29, Fraser offers racing on Wednesday and Thursday evenings at 7 p.m. (PT) for the balance of the year, as well as a 1 p.m. Boxing Day (Sunday, Dec. 26) card and 1 p.m. B.C. Breeders Stakes program (Thursday, Nov. 11).

Extraordinary Extras

Indulge in our columns, Alternative Actions and Bettors Banquet, at Harness Racing Update.