Holland's North American Picks for May 11

by Tim Holland

Editor's Note: Totals since starting Tim Holland's daily picks through May 10: 368 selections, 81 winners (22%). 8% profit on all bets. 22% profit at odds of 5-1 or higher.

Will Rogers Downs

Race 2

#7 Winning Bells (4-1) drops in class off a fading fifth-place finish after pressing the early leaders over the track and distance a week ago in her first start for trainer Silva and first after a short break. Silva wins with 27% of his runners second off a layoff and daughter of Dialed In finished second facing much better at Santa Anita earlier this year. Filly can be tough at this level with Bermudez retaining the mount.

Race 5

Trainer Bravo wins with 22% of his first-time starters and saddles #10 Sweet Medicine (3-1), who is a debuting son of 16% first-out sire Munnings. Gelding is out of a stakes-placed mare and works include a solid 5-furlong move in 1:00 4/5 nine days ago for Bravo, who has won with 20% of his runners at this meet. Bay appears ready to win at first asking under Eikleberry, who has won with 21% of rides for the barn in the past 60 days.

Race 9

A competitive group going one mile includes #8 Apalachee Bay (9-2), who makes his first start for trainer Tracy and who was last seen finishing unplaced in a stakes at Hastings in September. Son of Malibu Moon has won four of 18 career starts and has been working well for Tracy, who wins with 22% of his runners that have not raced for 90+ days and who has won with 24% of his starters this year. 5-year-old won a stakes from just off the pace at Hastings last year and should find a solid pace to stalk with Eads up.

Race 10

#2 Seahawk Wave (9-2) finished well when fourth after a slow start over the track and distance at this level last month. Trainer Diodoro wins with 27% of his runners in claiming events and 5-year-old has a record of 4-2-0-0 over 6 furlongs. Dark bay should be nearer the front early with a better start in event that does not have much pace.

Fonner Park

Race 1

#8 Bella’s Bluff (9-2) took betting action but was never a factor when unplaced over the track and distance in her debut over a year ago. Trainer Compton wins with just 4% of runners that have not raced for 90+ days but wins with 13% of runners overall in maiden special weight events, and daughter of Bellamy Road posted a sharp 4-furlong work in :47 2/5 from the gate last month. Filly should show more here with Fackler taking the mount.

Race 6

Trainer Martinez wins with 23% of runners that were beaten as the favorite last time out and saddles #8 Three Footer (7-2), who weakened to finish fourth as the choice in his latest at this level and distance last month in his second start after near six-month break. Dark bay makes his third outing for Martinez, who has won with 31% of runners this meet and who wins with 19% third off a layoff. Son of Overanalyze can be on or near the early lead with Armando Martinez remaining aboard.

Race 7

Blinkers are added to #4 Doby (9-2), who faded to finish unplaced in a stakes over a mile in his latest here last month. Trainer Mitchell wins with 14% of his runners going from a route to a sprint and bay finished second in one of two previous starts at this distance. Son of Goldencents can be in good position throughout with Journet in the saddle.

Race 8

#5 Vanquish (10-1) drops in class off a never-threatening unplaced effort over 6 furlongs last month in outing he may have needed, his first since November. Trainer Jondie looks for first winner of the meet, but gelding has some back class and can be tough at this level from off the pace with Haar riding.