Holland's North American Racing Picks for May 6

by Tim Holland

Peppering in the racing of Tampa Bay Downs as we continue with Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs picks for Wed., May 6.

Editor’s Note: As of May 3, 2020 Tim Holland has delivered with 314 races, 70 winners (22%) and a profit of 5% on all picks, (with off-the-turf races not counting) and when looking at runners with odds of 5-1 or higher, increases to a profit of 13%.

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 5

An allowance going a mile on turf include two well-bred fillies making their first start in this country. #7 Fashion’s Star (3-1) won one of two starts in England and has not been seen since being eased at Ascot just over a year ago. Daughter of excellent turf sire Sea of Stars posted a sharp 3-furlong move in :36 4/5 at Payson for trainer McGaughey, who has won with seven of last 16 runners this meet. 4-year-old is likely ready for a good effort as is #8 Flighty Almighty (7-2), who makes her first North American start for trainer Clement. Daughter of Elusive Quality won once from six starts in England and has been working well for Clement, who wins with 13% of runners that have not raced for 90+ days. Bay can be running from off the pace with Centeno riding.

Race 7

#8 California Sun (6-1) has not been seen since being eased on dirt in an allowance at Thistledown in late-September. Gelding has a good pedigree for turf and won his lone previous start on grass when leading from the start at Belterra two back. Chestnut has been working well for trainer Hamm, who wins with 15% of his runners that have not raced for 90 days or more. 3-year-old can be on or near the early lead with Lopez in the saddle.

Race 8

Some well-bred maidens on turf include #9 Big Dreaming (6-1), a debuting son of 14% grass sire Declaration of War, who is out of Dreaming of Anna, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). 3-year-old is a half-brother to promising sire Fast Anna, who was Grade 1-placed, and colt has been working well for Stidham, who wins with 15% of his first-time starters. Barn is having a good meet and bay appears ready for a good first outing under Centeno, who won his last start for Stidham.

Will Rogers Downs

Race 3

#7 Polly Tiz (6-1) weakened to finish third over the track and distance in a stakes in her latest after vying for the early lead in her second start after a three-month break. Trainer Lozano wins with at a 14% rate with horses making their third start off a layoff and daughter of Pollard’s Vision has won 2-of-11 career starts. Filly figures to be in front from the start with Eads retaining the mount.

Race 5

Plenty of early speed may set this up for a closer, such as #9 Special Conquest (8-1), who tries this track for the first time after finishing well when second on the all-weather surface at Turfway in mid-March. Dark bay does not win often, but trainer Cook does well with horses returning from a brief freshening, and mare can be along in time with Goncalves riding.

Race 9

#3 Lawton (3-1) comes off a third-place finish in an even effort at Oaklawn early last month in his first start since being claimed by Karl Broberg in January. Son of Archarcharch has a record of 5-1-1-3 at this distance and Broberg wins with a solid 29% of his runners second off the claim. Gelding should find a decent pace to stalk under Cabrera, who has won with 25% of rides for the barn in the last two months.

Fonner Park

Race 4

Trainer Martinez has won with 21% of her runners at this meet and saddles #5 Alex of Ice (7-2), who has not been seen since rallying from just off the pace to break his maiden at Mahoning Valley in January. Maiden breakers facing winners for the first time is not an easy task, but Martinez wins with 17% of her starters that have not raced for 90+ days and gelding is ranked first on BRIS Prime Power. Chestnut can be in good position from the start under Armando Martinez.

Race 5

#5 Love at Night (7-2) lost all chance when bumped at the start in a stakes last time, but has won 10-of-13 starts on this oval. Trainer Hemmer wins with 34% of his runners in sprint races and bay has a record of 13-9-1-1 at the 6-furlong distance. 7-year-old figures to be tough to catch with Fackler remaining aboard.

Race 7

Trainer Anderson wins with 25% of runners that were beaten as the favorite and sends out #8 Dorothe Marie (5-2), who was upset as the choice when third at this level last month. Gray has won 9-of-33 career starts at this distance, and Anderson has won with 18% of his runners at this meet. Mare should find a solid early pace to help her run-style be effective with Arrieta in the irons.