Horse Profile: Believing

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Scouting Report

(Editor's note: Originally published in the 2024 BRISnet Breeders' Cup International Report)

Older females have won this race five times, including the only European-trained winner, Glass Slippers (2020). Believing is the lone international of that demographic this year, and like Glass Slippers, she has experience around a turn.

Unlike multiple Group 1 winner Glass Slippers, however, Believing has yet to win a Group 1 race. But she’s been knocking on the proverbial door, and she hasn’t always had the best luck with her post positions when chasing Bradsell. 

Might drawing the rail here alter the equation, with Bradsell now posted wide? Believing also adds blinkers and gets Ryan Moore, who felt that she was better than ever when he rode her two starts back. 

A stablemate of Filly & Mare Turf contender Soprano, Believing is likewise trained by George Boughey for the well-known Highclere Thoroughbred Racing syndicate. In the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, the same tandem’s Cachet was a bold fourth in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Interestingly, Believing has placed to two Breeders’ Cup winners, and to another who came awfully close to a trophy. Aside from chasing Big Evs at Glorious Goodwood this summer, she was runner-up to a pair of notables in her two-year-old campaign. On debut, she was second to Mawj, the future classic heroine who almost won the 2023 Mile. Believing was later second in the 2022 Sirenia (G3) to Mischief Magic, who went on to land the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

By Mehmas and out of a Kodiac mare, Believing earned her first stakes score in the 2023 Chelmer Fillies’ S. over the Chelmsford Polytrack. She navigated the left-hand turn and rallied in time by a neck. Believing comfortably beat sophomore colts and fillies in the Prix Texanita (G3) at Chantilly, but her next visit to the French racecourse was a debacle. In the Prix du Gros-Chene (G2) versus older males, she reared at the start and lost an insurmountable number of lengths.

After rebounding in a six-furlong listed stakes at Pontefract (around a left-hand turn), Believing showed that she could mix it up at the highest level in last fall’s Haydock Sprint Cup (G1). She outperformed expectations as a 66-1 longshot, contending throughout and finishing a close third to older male Regional. 

Believing’s sophomore finale in the Champions Sprint (G1) at Ascot and her 2024 reappearance in Hong Kong were both marked by unsuitably soft going, and she didn’t do herself justice in either. But it’s an indication of her connections’ high regard that she even shipped all the way to Sha Tin for the Chairman’s Sprint Prize (G1).

Back on better ground at home, Believing has concentrated almost entirely on five-furlong dashes. She swept to an utterly comprehensive victory in the June 8 Achilles S. at Haydock en route to Royal Ascot, where she had the strong constitution to run well in both of the marquee sprints.

Believing was drawn on the farthest of the far side, post 1, in the King Charles III (G1), and she stayed on from well back to be involved in the finish in fourth. The top two, Australian mare Asfoora and Regional, had been drawn higher. Believing nearly caught pacesetter Big Evs, the gallant third, who was drawn nearer her side in post 6. Wheeling back four days later for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1), Believing stalked before tiring late for fourth again, but beaten further in her only six-furlong attempt in Europe this season.

The hardy filly maintained her form, and even improved, during the rest of her busy campaign. Raiding the Curragh for the Sapphire (G2), Believing secured good stalking position and stretched clear with authority. She’s since compiled four straight placings in divisional majors. 

In the King George (G2) at Glorious Goodwood, Believing didn’t break quickly, scrimmaged with Starlust at the back, and rattled off a final quarter in :22.13 to place an excellent, if frustrating, third to Big Evs and Asfoora. In the Nunthorpe (G1), Believing was drawn unfavorably wide at York, but flashed home in :22.35 for a bang-up second to Bradsell. Back at the Curragh for the Flying Five (G1), Believing found herself in post 1 on the far side and again closed for the runner-up spot to the charmed Bradsell. In the latest round of their rivalry in the Prix de l’Abbaye (G1) on Arc Day, Believing was well drawn, but strung up behind a wall of horses on very soft going, and finally got out for a belated third. She was only a head away from catching runner-up Bradsell. 

Believing is so close to a breakthrough at the top level, and the fresh variables in place at Del Mar could be enough to push her across the threshold. She’ll need the blinkers to sharpen her up.