Horse Profile: Lake Victoria

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Scouting Report

(Editor's note: Originally published in the 2024 BRISnet Breeders' Cup International Report)

Lake Victoria brings a stellar 4-for-4 record, including the “Win and You’re In” Moyglare Stud (G1) and the Cheveley Park (G1) that showcased vastly different running styles. But at prohibitive odds, it could be worth remembering that O’Brien was winless in this race until Meditate (2022), although he’d gone close several times.

Another consideration comes from her pedigree and physique. A Coolmore homebred by Frankel, Lake Victoria is out of sprint champion Quiet Reflection. Although Quiet Reflection has produced a couple of thoroughgoing stayers by Galileo (Bluegrass and The Equator), O’Brien observed that Lake Victoria is built like a sprinter. Thus my suspicion is that the one-mile Juvenile Fillies Turf could serve as a fact-finding mission ahead of her three-year-old campaign.

Lake Victoria has had star quality from the beginning. Unveiled in a deep maiden over Irish Derby weekend, she traveled strongly in touch with the leaders and cleared away, only to be accosted by the other co-favorite, Red Letter. Lake Victoria dug in to hold off the Juddmonte filly in 1:24.21, a fast time for the Curragh’s seven furlongs. 

Invading Newmarket for the Aug. 10 Sweet Solera (G3), Lake Victoria led under a strong hold, not really switched off. Yet she kept on powerfully to defeat Godolphin’s Mountain Breeze, who was a consistent performer in the division until flopping in the Natalma (G1). 

Lake Victoria entered the Moyglare Stud in the shadow of odds-on stablemate Bedtime Story, but she totally upended the Ballydoyle pecking order. Restrained at the rear by design, Lake Victoria delivered a smashing rally to pass the field, while Bedtime Story retreated to a subpar last. Runner-up Simmering and third-placer Exactly confirm the merit of the form. Exactly came back to place a close third in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) on Arc Day, and in her latest, she trounced males in the Killavullan (G3). 

Even more persuasive is the time of the Moyglare. Lake Victoria clocked seven furlongs in 1:23.73, considerably faster than the 1:25.08 in the Vincent O’Brien National (G1) (see Henri Matisse in the Juvenile Turf).

O’Brien commented that the change to hold-up tactics was to ensure that Lake Victoria didn’t have a hard race. The bold plan was to wheel back 13 days later for the six-furlong Cheveley Park at Newmarket. Normally a filly who’d performed so well while racing exclusively over seven wouldn’t be cutting back, but Lake Victoria’s superior speed led the master of Ballydoyle to think she could pull it off.

Indeed, Lake Victoria had more than enough pace not only to win the Cheveley Park, but to look explosive while again running faster than the colts in the companion race. Allowed to bowl along in the front rank, she bounded away by three lengths in 1:11.94. In comparison, Godolphin’s exciting colt Shadow of Light needed 1:12.29 to complete the Middle Park (G1).

Both on the clock and on a line of collateral form, Lake Victoria comes off better than talented stablemate Whistlejacket (Juvenile Turf Sprint). Whistlejacket was a distant second in the Middle Park. Also, a few of her beaten Cheveley Park rivals had met Whistlejacket; chief among them was fourth-placer Babouche, who had floored Whistlejacket in the Phoenix (G1). 

With that glowing resume, Lake Victoria rates as the obvious one they all have to beat here. Yet her speedy profile, and the chance that she’s ridden patiently to see if she gets the mile, raise a slight scruple. If she’s left with too much ground to make up at the top of the short stretch, she might run out of real estate.