Horse Profile: Luxembourg

Breeders' Cup Turf Scouting Report

(Editor's note: Originally published in the 2024 BRISnet Breeders' Cup International Report) 

If the erstwhile glamor colt doesn’t occupy the same Ballydoyle pedestal as in former years, Luxembourg remains a threat when he lands in the right spot to do himself justice. The Turf in principle shapes up as just that spot, especially with current pin-up boys City of Troy (Classic) and Auguste Rodin (Japan Cup) going elsewhere.

Of O’Brien’s seven Turf winners, three were older males, including St Nicholas Abbey (2011), whom Luxembourg broadly resembled earlier in his career. Both were unbeaten winners of the Futurity Trophy (G1) at two, antepost Derby (G1) favorites whose three-year-old campaigns were blighted by injury, and later successful as older horses.

But other than winning the Coronation Cup (G1), Luxembourg hasn’t maintained the same trajectory this season. It remains to be seen if he can recapture the glory back in his optimal conditions, as Ballydoyle’s number one seed.

By Camelot (himself a son of Montjeu like St Nicholas Abbey), and from the extended family of 1993 Classic shocker Arcangues, Luxembourg sustained his first loss when third in the 2000 Guineas (G1) in 2022. He was subsequently diagnosed with a muscle injury that ruled him out of the Derby. 

Unlike St Nicholas Abbey, who missed the rest of his sophomore year after losing the Guineas, Luxembourg beat the odds and made it back to the races later in the season. After just prevailing in his Royal Whip (G3) tightener, he moved forward to win the Irish Champion (G1) with a determined rally. 

Aside from toppling the Irish Champion favorite Vadeni, Luxembourg defeated a few who would compete creditably in that fall’s Turf at Keeneland, including veteran money-spinner Mishriff. Unfortunately, next time out in the Arc, Luxembourg re-injured himself when a valiant seventh behind Alpinista and Vadeni.

As a four-year-old in 2023, Luxembourg’s only win came via a front-running coup in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) at the Curragh. Yet he was runner-up in three majors. In the Prince of Wales’s (G1) at Royal Ascot, Luxembourg was hounded by a longshot early and ultimately outkicked by 1 1/4-mile specialist Mostahdaf.

In his Irish Champion title defense, he led (unlike his hold-up tactics in 2022) and succumbed grudgingly to Auguste Rodin, who was getting six pounds from Luxembourg, in a fast 2:02.68. Auguste Rodin won the Turf next out, and fourth-placer King of Steel boosted the form by taking the Champion (G1) at Ascot. 

Luxembourg picked up a foot bruise that affected his timetable, so he wasn’t ready to go to war again until last December’s Hong Kong Cup (G1). But he turned in one of his better performances with a courageous near-miss to defending champ Romantic Warrior. Ridden more patiently in midpack at Sha Tin, Luxembourg was then urged to range alongside Romantic Warrior on the far turn. Although Hong Kong’s Horse of the Year had too sharp a turn of foot for him upon straightening, Luxembourg kept trying the entire way, and he surged in the final yards to make the finish awfully tight. Romantic Warrior just lasted by a short head, while Turf rival Rousham Park was a non-threatening eighth. 

O’Brien reportedly expected big things of Luxembourg in 2024, but very little has gone right. Breaking from the far outside post 13 in the Feb. 24 Neom Turf Cup (G2) on Saudi Cup Day, he expended extra energy to attend the pace, struck the front, and got outkicked in fourth. 

Shortening up to about nine furlongs for the March 30 Dubai Turf (G1) appeared a rather bold experiment. Luxembourg raced prominently early but found himself outpaced by the stretch. He was already dropping back, with Ryan Moore taking care of him, when the ill-fated Catnip fell in front of him. Forced to check dramatically, he appeared to lose his action thereafter.

Luxembourg’s lone bright spot of the year so far came in the May 31 Coronation Cup at Epsom, a race that St Nicholas Abbey won an amazing three times. But Luxembourg won as the controlling speed. Able to dictate terms in a small field going 1 1/2 miles, he poached an unassailable advantage in the stretch and held sway by a length from the closing Hamish. Moore was hailed for his expertly-judged ride, and it also helped that favored Emily Upjohn ran below her best in fourth.

But handy positions didn’t yield results in his two ensuing starts. For the second straight year, Luxembourg faded in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot. While he wound up fourth in 2023, he retreated to a worse sixth this time, after getting embroiled (like Rebel’s Romance) in the unhelpful pace scenario. 

Reverting to 1 1/4 miles in the Irish Champion, Luxembourg added cheekpieces and sped right to the lead. He stayed there until the final furlong, when he weakened to sixth behind Economics and Auguste Rodin. Sectional data reveals that Luxembourg went much faster in the opening quarter-mile than last year, and he paid the price for it late.

If Luxembourg can pace himself better at Del Mar (and the presence of stablemate Wingspan implies he should), he has every chance of being involved in the finish. As a top-class horse effective in the range of 10 to 12 furlongs, depending upon the race shape, a tactical Turf on a sharp track should play right to his strengths. To use O’Brien’s turn of phrase, it has his “handwriting” on it.