Horse Profile: Shin Believe

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Scouting Report

(Editor's note: Originally published in the 2024 BRISnet Breeders' Cup International Report)

The internationally-minded Mori (see Ecoro Sieg in the Juvenile Turf Sprint) remains the only Japanese trainer to take a swing at this race. Fifth with Full Flat in 2019 and 10th with Jasper Great in 2021, he’s double-handed this year with a pair of Kentucky-breds sourced at OBS March – Shin Believe and Ecoro Azel.

Shin Believe, an $800,000 son of Constitution, is owned by Susumu Fujita, whose star colt Forever Young (Classic) and ambitious Meta Max (Sprint) run on Saturday.

Shin Believe was bred by Don Alberto Corp. His dam, multiple Group 2 winner Sand Puce, was a redoubtable campaigner in her native Argentina. By Footstepsinthesand, a classic-winning son of Giant’s Causeway, Sand Puce won a dozen stakes and placed in 10 more, including several Group 1s. 

Initially offered as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Sale, Shin Believe failed to reach his reserve price when bidding stopped at $385,000. But he became a hot property under the tutelage of Scanlon Training & Sales, drilling a furlong in :9 4/5 at his OBS under tack show. 

Shin Believe has raced just once, in an Aug. 3 newcomers’ race at Niigata. The favorite appeared physically well developed as he stalked the pace and swept past readily, displaying an economical stride while opening up by five lengths.

The concern is that Shin Believe was unveiled going about nine furlongs, giving him the same resume as Jasper Great before his Juvenile disappointment. Nor was his time (1:54.7) particularly noteworthy, since the other races at the distance (admittedly won by sophomores or elders) all went faster.

What could make a difference for Shin Believe is that he graduated from the two-year-olds in training sales scene. Jasper Great was a yearling purchase who attempted the Juvenile off his lone start. 

Still, it’s likely significant that Mori’s better Juvenile result came with the more experienced Full Flat, who had three races under his belt (albeit on turf).